Starts: 29th September 2022
Course: Old Course, St Andrews, Scotland (Host Course)
Length: 7,318 yards
2021 Champion: Danny Willett
Type of Courses - Links
Old Course scoring average 2019 - 68.99
Carnoustie scoring average 2019 - 71.11
Kingsbarns scoring average 2019 - 69.53
Hosted Since -2001
Premium on - Links ability and ability to play in wind.
Showers expected all week along with a consistent wind should keep the scoring down a touch.
Light cloud and a gentle breeze. Wind 7-10mph
Light cloud and a gentle breeze. Wind 7-11mph
Light rain showers and a fresh breeze. Wind 14-18mph.
Light rain showers and a moderate breeze. Wind 12-15mph.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
There are 17 LIV players entered into the field this week.
The first three days are rotated around three courses - St Andrews Old Course, Carnoustie and Kingsbarns. The cut is made on Saturday evening with top 60 and ties progressing to Sunday.
The tournament is played with amateurs, each professional forming a team with one amateur. Rounds can therefore be slow and players must be patient.
Carnoustie usually plays harder than the other two, so beware of that if betting in-play..
We have had winning scores of -15 to -24 in the last 6 years. With the current weather forecast we should expect somewhere in the late teens.
Danny Willett was world number 170 prior to his win last year. Victor Perez was a big outsider in 2019, ranking 183rd before his win. Lucas Bjerregard ranked 92nd and had won the Portugal Masters the year prior. Tyrrell Hatton was 29th and 54th prior to his wins in 2017 and 2016 but they were the first of his career. Six of the last eight winners had won on Tour before.
Danny Willett had 2nd and 5th place finishes at this event prior to winning. Victor Perez and Lucas Bjerregard had no previous big finishes at this event but Hatton won back to back and Thorbjorn Olesen had a previous 2nd place before his win in 2015. In general, links form is very important and certain players perform well consistently.
It's notable that none of the last eight winners started their week at Kingsbarns. Five of the last eight winners started at Carnoustie and three started at St Andrews.
Willett had missed three of his four cuts prior to his victory. Perez arrived on the back of two missed cuts in 2019. Bjerregard had hot form (20-2-6- in 2018, as did Hatton in 2017. However, Hatton was out of form for his win in 2016. We can conclude it is not necessary to come in hot but it helps.
Two Danes and five Englishmen have won in the last eight years. Overall, British players perform well in home conditions.
Strokes Gained stats have been available for the past four tournaments.
SG: Off The Tee
The past four champions ranked 75-1-35-48 (most recent first). Driving was the key stat in 2019 (runner up, Matthew Southgate, was 6th in SG: Off The Tee) but hasn't been as important in other years.
The past four champions ranked 11-3-10-16 (most recent first). Solid approach play generally leads to success.
SG: Around The Greens
The past four champions ranked 38-91-7-19 (most recent first). Not a key stat.
SG: Tee to Green
The past four champions ranked 11-1-1-8 (most recent first). Unsurprisingly, a solid tee to green game is required this week.
The past four champions ranked 19-95-21-4 (most recent first). As always, it helps to putt well but you can win without a red hot putter here.
Four of the six toughest holes in 2021 were at Carnoustie. The 18th, 17th, 2nd and 16th averaged 0.47, 0.42, 0.33 and 0.21 shots over par. On the Old Course, holes 17 and 13 played the toughest, averaging 0.5 and 0.3 strokes over par.
Birdie Holes (Host Course - St Andrews)
The par 5 5th hole at St Andrews was the easiest hole all week. The 12th and 14th at Carnoustie and 3rd at Kingsbarns all averaged over 0.5 strokes under par.
Fast or Slow Start
Due to the course rotation and changing weather conditions, catch up is very possible here. With that said, the last five winners have been in the top 12 after round one.
Players We Almost Backed
NOTE - These are players who we shortlisted for this event but ultimately didn't advise to subscribers. If you want to find out who we did tip, you can subscribe using the link below.
Matt Wallace 80/1
English players have thrived here in recent years and Wallace has finished 28th and 15th here in his last two attempts. Add in a 12th place finish at the Fortinet two weeks ago and he ticked a lot of boxes.
Thorbjorn Olesen 80/1
The key to finding a winner last week was identifying that Guido Migliozzi had been putting consistently well for weeks on end and then had an improvement in his approach play a week prior to the win. The exact same can be said of Olesen this week as his usually ever so reliable putter let him down in France but he led the tee to green stats. It also helps that Olesen is a past winner here, in addition to having a 2nd place too.
Lucas Bjerregaard 175/1
A past winner of this event, his price plummeted early on this week and he made much less appeal at less than 200/1. Long game has been trending for a few weeks though and wouldn't be a surprise to see him go well.
Oliver Wilson 200/1
Wilson seems rejuvenated following his victory in Denmark and is now on a run of four made cuts in a row. He is another past champion here, winning in 2014 when completely out of form. Now that his game has returned, he will have had his eye on this week for some time. Another who has been putting well for weeks