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Alfred Dunhill Championship 2024

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Starts: 12th December 2024
Course: Leopard Creek, South Africa
Par: 72 (35-37)
Length: 7,249 yards
2023 Champion: Louis Oosthuizen

2024 Alfred Dunhill Championship Course Info

Course Designer: Gary Player
Fairways: Firm, undulating.
Rough: Lush, surrounded by bushes and trees.
Greens: Bermuda, fast.
Water Hazards: Features throughout.
Par 5's: 2nd, 13th, 15th, 18th
Hosted Since: 2004
Premium on: Iron Play, Putting
 

Significant Info To Be Aware Of

There were big changes to the course in 2017, hence no tournament held that year. Fairways and rough changed from kikuyu to bermuda and greens were resurfaced.

 The course now plays considerably tougher. 

2024 Alfred Dunhill Championship Trends

Winning score
Since the renovation, the winning scores have been -18 (twice), -14 (twice) and -8. We can expect somewhere in between this week.

Course form
Louis Oosthuizen had multiple top ten finishes at Leopard Creek prior to winning last year.  Ockie Strydom had never cracked the top 50 before winning this event in 2022.  Winner in 2020, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, had a mixed course record at Leopard Creek but did have a top 20 finish in 2018.  Winner in 2019, Pablo Larrazabal, had solid form here but 2018 winner, David Lipsky, was a debutant. The seven winners before the changes all had a top 12 finish previously. Solid course form is preferred despite Lipsky's win on his debut.

Incoming form
Louis Oosthuizen hadn't played for seven weeks prior to winning this event last year.  Ockie Strydom was 15th the week before winning in 2022.  Christiaan Bezuidenhout was also 15th the week before winning in 2020. Winners of this event in 2018 and 2019 had mixed form. Before the course changes, just about every winner had a top 10 in their last 5 starts.

Nationality
South Africans have won nine of the last eleven Alfred Dunhill Championships.  Spaniards have a good record at this course, four of the last six non-South African winners have been from Spain.

Age
Three of the last five winners have been in their thirties.  Christian Bezuidenhout was in his twenties and Louis OOsthuizen was 41 when winning last year.

2024 Alfred Dunhill Championship Stats

Summary
Strokes Gained stats are available for 2018, 2020 and 2022, but there are none on the European Tour website for 2019. They show approach play is more important than driving around Leopard Creek, with a hot putter preferably.  However, there were no stats produced for any of the LIV Golf players last year, including the front two (Louis Oosthuizen and Charl Schwartzel).

SG: Off The Tee
We don't have stats for the 2022 winner, Ockie Strydom, but runner up Adrian Otaegui was 73rd in the SG: Off The Tee rankings.  Christiaan Bezuidenhout, winner in 2020, ranked 37th in this category.  None of the top 5 ranked higher than 20th in 2018.  You don't need to be an excellent driver of the ball at Leopard Creek.

SG: Approach
Runner up in 2022, Adrian Otaegui, led the SG: Approach stats.  Third place finisher, Laurie Canter, was third for approach.  Two of the top five in 2020 ranked inside the top 10 of this category.  In 2018, four of the top five ranked inside the top 10.  Strong approach play is key this week.

SG: Around The Greens
Otaegui was 12th and Canter was 45th in 2020 in this category.  Three of the top five ranked inside the top 30 in this category in 2020 with four of the top five ranking inside the top 30 around the green in 2018.

SG: Putting
Neither Otaegui nor Canter ranked inside the top 35 for SG: Putting.  Three of the top 10 in 2020 were inside the top 10 for SG: Putting.  Only two of the top five ranked inside the top ten in 2018.

2024 Alfred Dunhill Championship In Play Advice

Tough Holes
Holes seven through nine is a tough stretch, consistently playing as the three hardest holes each year.

Birdie Holes
The three par 5s (2nd, 13th and 15th) play well under par and play well under par, along with the driveable par four 6th and short 11th.

Fast or Slow Start
In 2023, Louis Oosthuizen trailed by five shots after round one but led going into the final round after a third round 63.

In 2022, two of the eventual top three (Ockie Strydom and Laurie Canter) were within three shots of the round one leader.  

In 2020, four of the eventual top five were inside the top eight after the opening round.

In 2019, Larrazabal and Besseling (3rd) were 1st and 2nd after round 1, but 2nd place Sjoholm came from five shots back. Sjoholm was nine shots adrift at halfway and only lost by one in the end, partly due to a final round 75 for Larrazabal.

In 2018, David Drysdale was the only top 5 finisher who was within three shots of the first round leader.

 

2024 Alfred Dunhill Chmpionship Tips

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In-play

2024 Alfred Dunhill Championship in-play tips

14th December 2024, 6:05pm (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Kinhult -14
Van Velzen -12
Van Driel -11
Five Players Tied -10

2024 Alfred Dunhill Championship Round 3 Conditions

Cooler conditions than the first two days with some cloud cover and a gentle breeze.

2024 Alfred Dunhill Championship Round 4 Weather Bias?

The temperature is set to rise again with another hot day expected. The wind is set to pick up to 12mph in the afternoon so morning starters will enjoy a slight advantage.

2024 Alfred Dunhill Championship Outright Market Summary

Marcus Kinhult is now a strong 13/8 favourite with a two shot lead over our 350/1 in-play pick Ryan Van Velzen. As we said yesterday, Kinhult lost out in a playoff earlier this year at the KLM Open but did so coming from off the pace and he has had little experience of leading in recent years. He looks a short price and certainly not one we would be backing. 

The price may reflect the quality of his nearest chasers but they are likely being underestimated and Dean Burmester remains a big threat after hanging in there without his best stuff today. 

 

Alfred Dunhill Championship Round 4 Bets

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13th December 2024, 9:05pm (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Kinhult -11
Pavan -8
Whitnell -8
Burmester -8
Six Players Tied -5

2024 Alfred Dunhill Championship Round 2 Conditions

Once again sunny and hot with a breeze which picked up in the afternoon.

2024 Alfred Dunhill Championship Round 3 Weather Bias?

Cooler conditions than the first two days with some cloud cover expected and a moderate breeze.

2024 Alfred Dunhill Championship Outright Market Summary

Dean Burmester is the 5/1 favourite after a strong showing in round two put him into the trio at eight under par chasing Marcus Kinhult.  Burmester notched back to back wins this time last year in South Africa and he's the rightful favourite given the way he has performed on LIV this past twelve months.

This event remains wide open given the fact that Kinhult aside, only three shots separates 29 players between five under par and eight under par.  Kinhult lost out in a playoff earlier this year at the KLM Open but did so coming from off the pace and he has had little experience of leading in recent years.  It's not unthinkable that his three shot lead is eaten into after round three.

 

Alfred Dunhill Championship Round 3 Bets

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12th December 2024, 9:30pm (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Sullivan -8
Kinhult -7
Fitzpatrick -7
Jarvis -7
Six Players Tied -5

2024 Alfred Dunhill Championship Round 1 Conditions

Sunny and hot with a breeze which picked up in the afternoon.

2024 Alfred Dunhill Championship Round 2 Weather Bias?

The scoring should be better tomorrow morning in the cooler, calmer conditions. Morning starters favoured. 

2024 Alfred Dunhill Championship Outright Market Summary

Andy Sullivan is 6/1 favourite, closely followed by Alex Fitzpatrick at 8/1. Both players feel easy to oppose given they will play in tougher conditions tomorrow and we expect the leaderboard to even out at the halfway point. There are plenty of nice prices around for morning starters that are catching our eye. 

 

Alfred Dunhill Championship Round 2 Bets

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