Preview
Event Info
Starts: 8th December 2022
Course: Leopard Creek, South Africa
Par: 72 (35-37)
Length: 7,249 yards
2020 Champion: Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Course Info
Course Designer: Gary Player
Fairways: Firm, undulating.
Rough: Lush, surrounded by bushes and trees.
Greens: Bermuda, fast.
Water Hazards: Features throughout.
Par 5's: 2nd, 13th, 15th, 18th
Hosted Since: 2004
Premium on: Iron Play, Putting
Weather Forecast
Summary
Warm temperatures ranging from 15 degrees early in morning to peaks of 32 degrees.
Thursday
Potential thunderstorms. Wind 5mph, gusts of 13mph.
Friday
Potential rain showers. Wind 6mph, gusts of 17mph.
Saturday
Possible thunderstorms. Wind 6mph, gusts of 15mph
Sunday
Possible thunderstorms. Wind 6mph, gusts of 15mph
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
There were big changes to the course in 2017, hence no tournament held that year. Fairways and rough changed from kikuyu to bermuda and greens were resurfaced.
Course now plays considerably tougher. Pablo Larrazabal won last year with -8 in 2019 and scoring average was 74.34. Only four players bettered Larrazabal's score in 2018.
Trends
Winning score
Since the renovation, the winning scores have been -14 (twice) and -8. We can expect somewhere in between this week.
Course form
Winner in 2020, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, had a mixed course record at leopard Creek but did have a top 20 finish in 2018. Winner in 2019, Pablo Larrazabal, had solid form here but 2018 winner, David Lipsky, was a debutant. The seven winners before the changes all had a top 12 finish previously. Solid course form is preferred despite Lipsky's win on his debut.
Incoming form
Christiaan Bezuidenhout was 15th the week before winning in 2020. Winners of this event in 2018 and 2019 had mixed form. Before the course changes, just about every winner had a top 10 in their last 5 starts.
Nationality
South Africans have won seven of the last nine Alfred Dunhill Championships. Spaniards have a good record at this course, four of the last six non-South African winners have been from Spain.
Stats Analysis
Summary
Strokes Gained stats are available for 2018 and 2020, but there are none on the European Tour website for 2019. They show approach play is more important than driving around Leopard Creek, with a hot putter preferably.
SG: Off The Tee
Christiaan Bezuidenhout, winner in 2020, ranked 37th in this category. None of the top 5 ranked higher than 20th in 2018. You don't need to be an excellent driver of the ball at Leopard Creek.
SG: Approach
Two of the top five in 2020 ranked inside the top 10 of this category. In 2018, four of the top five ranked inside the top 10.
SG: Around The Greens
Three of the top five ranked inside the top 30 in this category in 2020 with four of the top five ranking inside the top 30 around the green in 2018.
SG: Putting
Three of the top 10 in 2020 were inside the top 10 for SG: Putting. Only two of the top five ranked inside the top ten in 2018.
In Play
Tough Holes
7-9 is a tough stretch, playing as the three hardest holes in 2020.
Birdie Holes
The three par 5s (2nd, 13th and 15th) play well under par and play well under par, along with the driveable par 4 6th and short 11th.
Fast or Slow Start
Four of the eventual top five were inside the top eight after the opening round in 2020.
In 2019, Larrazabal and Besseling (3rd) were 1st and 2nd after round 1, but 2nd place Sjoholm came from 5 back. Sjoholm was 9 shots adrift at halfway and only lost by 1 in the end, partly due to a final round 75 for Larrazabal.
In 2018, David Drysdale was the only top 5 finisher who was within 3 shots of the first round leader.
In-play
Alfred Dunhill Championship in-play tips
10th December 2022, 7:05pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Jamieson |
-15 |
Strydom |
-15 |
Bekker |
-13 |
Burmester |
-13 |
Whitnell |
-12 |
Grace |
-12 |
Frittelli |
-12 |
Otaegui |
-12 |
Round 3 Summary
Ockie Strydom equalled the best score of the week to join round two leader, Scott Jamieson, at the top of the leaderboard. Jamieson, the other player to shoot 63 this week, bounced back from a disappointing opening nine holes to hold a share of the lead going into the final round.
Notable Round 3 Quotes
"It was a solid day. As expected, the course was a little tougher today, the green speeds were up a little bit on yesterday. I didn't get off to the best of starts on the front nine, I hit poor shots on the fourth and fifth which kind of killed the momentum." Scott Jamieson
"The golf course was out there for the taking today, we had less wind and you can see it in the scoring." Dean Burmester
Round 3 Weather
Sunny. Wind 5-7 mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Scott Jamieson retains favouritism at 14/5. Those of you who read our blog yesterday (see below) will know that we feel he's worth taking on and that opinion hasn't changed.
Jamieson's co-leader, Ockie Strydom, can be backed at 4/1. The South African has been runner up three times this year on the Sunshine Tour but one win in over 230 starts as a professional tells its own story and we find it hard to see him fending off the chasing pack.
Deam Burmester is 9/2 third favourite but he'll be counting the cost of two bogeys in his final three holes. We would have wanted a slightly larger price to bring him under consideration.
Where is the value?
The players at -12 make most appeal. Dylan Frittelli has been making plenty of birdies this week but needs to keep costly double and triple bogeys off his card. Branden Grace and Adrian Otaegui are proven winners who are no strangers to low final rounds.
Round 4 Bet
You can join our free Telegram group by clicking the button above.
9th December 2022, 9:05pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Jamieson |
-13 |
Ravetto |
-10 |
Kimsey |
-10 |
Pepperell |
-10 |
Five players tied |
-9 |
Round 2 Summary
Afternoon starters enjoyed favourable scoring conditions and Scott Jamieson was the man who made the most of the opportunity. The Scot has a three stroke lead going into the weekend at Leopard Creek.
Notable Round 2 Quotes
"I always love playing golf here. It's my favourite week of the year. So yeah, I'm up for the challenge." Scott Jamieson
"I didn't feel terribly comfortable off the tee for the 2nd half of the round but I hit my irons very well." Eddie Pepperell
Round 2 Weather
Sunny. Wind 6-8 mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Scott Jamieson is the 14/5 favourite given he's out in front on his own. However, he makes very little appeal given the quality of players chasing him. Jamieson led by a couple at the ISPS Handa Championship in Spain earlier this year and ended up in a tie for 10th. He was also 2nd going into the weekend at the hero Open going into the weekend and finished 41st! We're happy to take him on.
Dean Burmester is available to back at 13/2 but that feels a fraction short. His length is a definite advantage this week but he's also missed his last three cuts at Leopard Creek and for the time being we're happy to consider others.
Eddie Pepperell and Louis Oosthuizen make much more appeal at 15/2 and 17/2 respectively. Pepperell stated he wasn't feeling comfortable off the tee in today's round but he was razor sharp with his irons. Will his lack of confidence with the driver affect him over the weekend?
Where is the value?
Had we not already been on Dylan Frittelli pre-event at 40/1, he would have come into our thoughts at 22/1. He's lost four strokes on the 7th hole alone and is expected to go close over the weekend if he can stay out of trouble.
Round 3 Bet
You can join our free Telegram group by clicking the button above.
8th December 2022, 5:05pm (UK time)
Player | Total |
Burmester |
-7 |
Nemecz |
-6 |
Grace |
-5 |
Ahlers |
-5 |
Ravetto |
-5 |
Germishuys |
-5 |
Fichardt |
-5 |
Round 1 Summary
Dean Burmester came home in 31 to take a one shot lead into the 2nd round of the Alfred Dunhill Championship. The rough is almost non-existent this year and Burmester was able to utilise his length off the tee to great effect.
Notable Round 1 Quotes
"I had a four week break at home, which was much needed. I didn't play a lot of golf.....last two days I did some really good work and yeah, I feel like I'm playing better again." Lukas Nemecz
Round 2 Weather
Rain showers possible. Wind 10-15 mph.
How do we expect the market favourites to perform?
Dean Burmester is the understandable 7/2 favourite. He could easily have been several shots better had the putter been warmer. He was able to hit a wedge into the par 5th 18th hole after a near 400 yard drive and that sort of driving distance should mean he has plenty of birdie opportunities over the coming days. He also has a morning tee time tomorrow.
Branden Grace is the only other player priced up below 14/1. A former winner of this event, he is available at 15/2. Whilst he's considered a challenger to Burmester, he plays in the afternoon in round two and we're happy to see how he plays in the tougher conditions.
Where is the value?
The wind made scoring tricky in the afternoon in the opening round and as such, we are looking to back morning starters in round two.
Round 2 Bet
You can join our free Telegram group by clicking the button above.