Event Info
Starts - 26 November 2020
Course - Leopard Creek, Malelane, South Africa
Par - 72 (35-37)
Length – 7,249 yards
Defending Champion: Pablo Larrazabal
Results
Overall Profit/Loss: +4.5pts
Pre-Event Six to Watch
6th Robert MacIntyre - 14/1 @ Skybet (8 places) (Part Each Way Place)
T39th Pablo Larrazabal - 45/1 @ Boylesports (8 places)
T13th Will Besseling - 50/1 @ William Hill (8 places)
MC Jorge Campillo - 50/1 @ Bet365 (5 places)
T23rd Masahiro Kawamura - 80/1 @ 888 Sport (6 places)
MC Lars Van Meijel - 150/1 @ Skybet (8 places)
In-Play bets: +4.5pts
26 November 2020 ( -5 Points)
1pt Each Way Steven Brown (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - 50/1 @ Bet365
1pt Each Way Garrick Higgo (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 70/1 @ 888Sport
0.5pt Each Way Nacho Elvira (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 150/1 @ Skybet
27 November 2020( -1 Points)
1pt Oliver Wilson top Englishman - 8/1 @ 888sport
28 November 2020( +10.5 Points)
3pts Christiaan Bezuidenhout Win Only - 7/2 @ Skybet
Preview
Course Info
Course Designer - Gary Player
Fairways - Firm, undulating.
Rough - Lush, surrounded by bushes and trees.
Greens - Bermuda, fast.
Water Hazards - Features throughout.
Par 5's - 2nd, 13th, 15th, 18th
Hosted Since - 2004
Premium on - Iron Play, Putting
Weather Forecast
Summary
Warm temperatures ranging from 15 degrees early in morning to peaks of 32 degrees.
Thurs - Mostly cloudy. Wind 7mph, gusts of 15mph.
Fri - Potential thunderstorms. Wind 9mph, gusts of 17mph.
Sat - Low clouds, breaking sun. Wind 7mph, gusts of 15mph
Sun - Warmer with intervals of clouds and sunshine. Wind 9mph, gusts of 15mph
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
There were big changes to the course in 2017, hence no tournament held that year. Fairways and rough changed from kikuyu to bermuda and greens were resurfaced.
Course now plays considerably tougher. Pablo Larrazabal won last year with -8 and scoring average was 74.34. Only four players bettered Larrazabal's score in 2018.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Trends
Winning score
Since the renovation, the winning scores have been -14 and -8. We can expect somewhere in between this week.
Course form
Larrazabal had solid form here and Lipsky was a debutant. The 7 winners before the changes all had a top 12 finish previously. Solid course form is preferred despite Lipsky's win.
Incoming form
Lipsky's was poor and Larrazabal had shown glimpses without setting the world alight. Before the course changes, just about every winner had a top 10 in their last 5 starts.
Nationality
Spanish and American winners in the last two events, but previously dominated by home winners before the course changes, with 6 South African's in a row.
Stats Analysis
Summary
Strokes Gained stats are available for 2018, but there are none on the European Tour website for 2019. They show approach play is more important than driving around Leopard Creek, with a hot putter preferably.
SG: Off The Tee
None of the top 5 ranked higher than 20th in 2018.
SG: Approach
4 of the top 5 ranked inside the top 10 in 2018. It is the key stat identified.
SG: Around The Greens
4 of the top 5 ranked inside the top 30 in 2018.
SG: Putting
2 of the top 5 ranked inside the top 5 in 2018.
In Play
Tough Holes
7-10 is a tough stretch, ranked 1st, 5th, 3rd and 7th hardest. 16th played the 2nd toughest last year.
Birdie Holes
The three par 5s (2nd, 13th and 15th) play well under par and were the easiest on the course in 2019, along with the driveable par 4 6th.
Fast or Slow Start
Last year, Larrazabal and Besseling (3rd) were 1st and 2nd after round 1, but 2nd place Sjoholm came from 5 back. Sjoholm was 9 shots adrift at halfway and only lost by 1 in the end, partly due to a final round 75 for Larrazabal.
IIn 2018, David Drysdale was the only top 5 finisher who was within 3 of the lead after 18 holes. Catch up is possible.
Six To Watch
Please Note - The Six To Watch will move to a different format from next week. We'll have more information on future changes on Saturday.
The Six To Watch for the Alfred Dunhill Championship are:
Robert MacIntyre - 14/1 @ Skybet (8 places)
Scottish Bob delivered for us 3 weeks ago at the Cyprus Showdown and we think he may well do it again. Brandon Stone has seemingly been tipped up everywhere this week, but on a comparison between the two, Robert rates much better value. Yes, Brandon has home advantage, struck it nicely last week, and is a previous winner here, but Robert is over 100 places higher than him in the world rankings and for good reason - he is a more consistent golfer with only one missed cut this year.
Finishes of 26th and 15th here in the two renewals since the course overhaul are a nice bonus and the Scot appears to have the necessary motivation to continue his blistering form. "I love the course. I've got a lot to play for just now so this week is a huge opportunity". A look back at Robert's big results shows many were after a week off, so that shouldn't out us off. He is the most talented player in the field and although priced accordingly he is the pick of the favourites.
Pablo Larrazabal - 45/1 @ Boylesports (8 places)
This one doesn't really need much explanation. Pablo loves Leopard Creek. 9th in 2018 after a missed cut and 1st last year after two mediocre starts, he arrives in more consistent form with finishes of 27-MC-24. The course clearly suits his game and he feels relaxed here. "Everything that I love in life is here. The best nature and the best golf courses combined makes this a dream place." Pablo is a horses-for-course type, shown by his record of two wins and a 3rd at Golfclub München Eichenried, which hosts the BMW International Open. 45/1 for 8 places on offer seems generous.
Will Besseling - 50/1 @ William Hill (8 places)
The Dutchman missed his first cut in seven starts last week despite a second round 69. It shouldn't phase him too much as he was playing consistent golf in the lead up with a run of 17-16-30. He will be relishing a return to Leopard Creek after his career best performance in 2019 where he finished 3rd. Strong iron play is the name of the game here and Will ranks 3rd for GIR this season and 15th tee to green. A final bonus is his performance at Valderrama where he managed a tough test to finish 3rd.
Jorge Campillo - 50/1 @ Bet365 (5 places)
Jorge fits a similar profile to last years winner Larrazabal and has had a fantastic summer with a 3rd in Cyprus, 7th in Portugal and 8th in Wales. He is a two time European Tour winner in Morroco and Qatar. In the latter he beat David Drysdale, who has a great record at Leopard Creek, in a play-off. 2018 champion David Lipsky also enjoyed a 5th place finish in Morroco so there are plenty of course correlations. The Spaniard has the solid all round game for this test, ranking in the top 55 for the season in putting, around the greens and tee to green.
Masahiro Kawamura - 80/1 @ 888 Sport (6 places)
A missed cut last time has driven his price out and we're willing to chance that it was a bad week at the office given he has missed his two previous cuts at Randpark before then. Masahiro has been knocking on the door with finishes of 2nd in Cyprus (6th SG: Approach) , 5th in Portugal and 8th in Spain. Indeed, it it is that finish at Valderrama that we like the best, another tough test in firm conditions where keeping away from trouble is key. As an added bonus, he finished 18th here following a missed cut in 2018 so has proved he can get back on track at this course.
Lars Van Meijel - 150/1 @ Skybet (8 places)
It is perfectly possible last week's 7th place could be a one off, but there is enough evidence to justify a small play on him at a big price. He improved every day with rounds of 70-69-67-66 and ranked 4th for SG: Tee to green, SG: Approach and GIR which shows how nicely he's hitting it. Finished 24th here last year on his first look at Leopards Creek. Won twice in 2019, once on the Challenge Tour and once on the Alps Tour, so he should have no fear if in contention. On offer at 175/1 at Bet 365 but probably wiser to take the 8 places at Skybet despite the price drop.
In-play
In-Play Blog
28 November 2020 3.30pm
-14 Meronk
-13 Schaper
-11 Bezuidenhout
-10 Crocker
-10 Arnaus
Adrian Meronk takes a one shot lead into the final round after an eventful Saturday at Leopard Creek. Looking nervy on the opening holes, Meronk dropped shots at the 3rd and 4th to fall a shot behind J B Hansen. In typical European Tour fashion, Hansen looked well in control until he carded a disastrous 8 at the 11th hole. Meronk then played within himself on the back nine to ensure he led with a round to go.
Meronk has shortened slightly (9/4 now) in the betting despite his lead now being only one shot. He did well to compose himself after a shaky front nine and he should be commended for that. However, it was notable that he layed up at the par 5 18th after booming a drive and that level of caution is unlikely to get the job done tomorrow. He had somewhat of a relaxed back nine after Hansen's aberration and it's unlikely he'll get it that easy tomorrow.
Meronk's nearest challengers are two young South Africans, Jayden Schaper and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. Both clients of Niall Horan's Modest Management company, they possess enough talent to reel Meronk in. Bezuidenhout has a couple of wins on the Sunshine Tour and a win at the Andalucia Masters in 2019. Given he's -1 for the front 9 and -10 for the back nine this week, he'll likely need a faster start tomorrow.
Jayden Schaper has yet to win on the Sunshine Tour and whilst there's no doubting his talent, he may need some more experience in contention before winning an event like this. He's been in the mix a couple of times now (both as an amateur and a pro) and hasn't really imposed himself. A high finish is likely but like Nienaber last week, he may benefit from the experience with a view to winning elsewhere soon.
Further back, Adri Arnaus and Sean Crocker are both capable of a low closing round. Both players have runner up finishes have been knocking on the door of a win on the European Tour in recent times. They'll be relishing the chance to attack the leaders tomorrow.
3pts Christiaan Bezuidenhout Win Only - 7/2 @ Skybet
Christiaan is the only player in the top 5 with a European Tour win and that experience could prove vital in helping him get over the line tomorrow. His driving has improved every day this week and he's been putting nicely too. He's only dropped two shots this week and that could prove crucial in seeing him move up the leaderboard given others are liable to drop shots. Christiaan has a 3⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating but would have had four stars were it not for his mistake at the Dubai Desert Classic in January. However, he's far more experienced now and against a group of players who will undoubtedly be nervous, he's a sound bet at 7/2.
27 November 2020 7:45pm
-13 Meronk
-10 Bland
-10 Hansen
-8 Roussel
-8 Schaper
-7 Three players tied
Unbelievably, the second round didn't get finished today due to one player not getting round before darkness descended, round of applause Garrick Porteous!
Challenge Tour graduate Adrian Meronk (3/1) has the halfway lead by three strokes after backing up Thursday's 65 with another 66. The leaderboard now has quite a spread out feel to it and as a result each way terms aren't favourable.
It would be a terrific performance for Meronk to win wire to wire from here. He was a winner on the Challenge Tour last year which will give him confidence for the weekend. However, he has no experience leading at this level after 36 or 54 holes and the youngster is bound to be feeling nervous about making history as the first Polish winner on tour.
In hot pursuit is last weeks winner JB Hansen who carded the round of the day (64). The Dane is playing the golf of his career at present and for our money may still be the man to beat. This is reflected in the prices and best price 4/1 doesn't offer massive value either.
Richard Bland can't be trusted to close based on 18 years of evidence and Schaper and Roussel did well to hang in there today. We can expect the dangermen at -7 to make a move but once again they are short enough.
With no value in the outright, we have spotted a play in a nationality market.
1pt Oliver Wilson top Englishman - 8/1 @ 888sport
Richard Bland is playing consistent golf at the moment but we have our doubts about him when he is near the top of a leaderboard. Richard has not won since 2001 on the Challenge Tour and hasn't had a European Tour top 5 for several years. Wilson is four shots back with the 3rd nearest runner seven shots behind Bland. It will take something special from the chasing Englishmen at -2 and -3 to be competitive in this market. Odds of 8/1 on Wilson in a potential two horse race look extremely attractive. Wilson has been gradually improving each week recently and is overpriced to catch Bland here.
26 November 2020 7:45pm
-7 Meronk
-7 Roussel
-6 Jamieson
-5 Bland
-4 Three players tied
The morning wave enjoyed the better of the conditions on day 1, with the wind picking up in the afternoon to firm the course up. Outsiders Adrian Meronk and Robin Roussel made the most of it and share the lead, but the outstanding round of the day came from Scott Jamieson who battled against the harder conditions to finish one off the lead. He is now bookmakers favourite (10/1), slightly ahead of Christian Bezuidenhout (11/1) who sits on -3.
Pre-tournament 50/1 shot Jamieson loves playing in South Africa, with three top 5's at Leopard Creek, a 2nd at Nedbank and a win at the Nelson Mandela Championship back in 2012. That win is his only European Tour success to date and was left off the six to watch for his poor conversion rate at relatively short odds. With an early start tomorrow he is quite rightly shortest in the market, however, it would still be a surprise were he to take the title on Sunday.
Favourites Robert McIntyre and Brandon Stone have got off to slow starts, and the former seemed rather irritable on the TV coverage. Our preview highlighted that catch up is extremely possible around here, probably due to the nature of the course and in particular the par 5's. There were quite a few dropped shots on the 13th and 18th.
If you look back at the 2018 event, which was the first since the course changes, only one player (David Drysdale) broke 70 in the opening round who ended up finishing in the top eight. No player in the field broke 70 all four days that year so a good round in the 60's can catapult you up the leaderboard. With this in mind we have identified morning starters tomorrow who can gradually work their way into contention.
1pt Each Way Steven Brown (1/4 1,2,3,4,5) - 50/1 @ Bet365
1pt Each Way Garrick Higgo (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 70/1 @ 888Sport
0.5pt Each Way Nacho Elvira (1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 150/1 @ Skybet
The 2019 Portugal Masters champion sits at -3 with a chance to make a move with the easier conditions tomorrow. Steven stood out whilst looking at the stats, ranking 8th for SG: Off the tee, 9th for SG: Approach and 4th Scrambling. With a lack of proven winners at this level at the top of the leaderboard, Steven's relatively recent winning experience may prove crucial over the weekend.
We have selected another player who possesses a win in Portugal. The South African youngster finds himself 7 shots back, hence the price drift, but for the reasons mentioned above, he has plenty of time to get back into this. He ranked 7th for greens in regulation yesterday but more importantly, ranked 18th SG: Putting, which was his downfall last week at the Joburg Open.
Nacho has been selected at a value price and is simply too big. Twice a runner up on the European Tour, maybe he can take some inspiration from fellow Spaniard Larrazabal's win here last year. It's interesting to note that one of the 2nd place finishes was at the Trophy Hassan II, where previous Leopard Creek winner David Lipsky also won. Extremely consistent stats after day 1 ranking in the top 30 for SG: tee to green, scrambling and SG: Putting. He can improve on his 20th place finish in his last start in Cyprus.