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Abu Dhabi Championship 2023

abu dhabi tips, euro tour picks, abu dhabi picks, dp world tour tips
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2023 Abu Dhabi Championship Tips

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Event Info

Starts: 19th January 2023
Course: Yas Links, Abu Dhabi
Par: 72 (36-36)
Length: 7,425 yards
2022 Champion: Thomas Pieters

Course Info

Course Designer: Kyle Phillips
Fairways: Narrow, Flat, Bunkers in key landing spots
Rough: Thick if wayward
Greens: Bermuda. 
Water Hazards: Featured throughout
Par 5's:  2nd, 7th, 11th, 18th
Hosted Since: 2022
Premium on: Accuracy

Weather

Thursday
Sunny intervals wind max 13mph.

Friday
Sunny wind max 9mph.

Saturday
Sunny wind max 10mph.

Sunday
Sunny wind max 10mph.

 

Significant Info To Be Aware Of
- This is the first full field event of the 2023 European Tour season. Those players who didn't play in the Hero Cup may be rusty.

- This is the second time Yas Links has hosted this event.

- The wind on Friday at last year's event was exceptionally strong.  Many players struggled and you may want to consider players who played well in round one but not round two.

Trends

Winning score
Thomas Pieters won with a score of -10 last year.

Correlating Courses
Kyle Philips also designed Bernardus Golf (Dutch Open 2021) and Kingsbarns (one of the courses used for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship).  He was also responsible for designing The Grove, home of the 2016 British Masters.  We also have three Sicilian Open's played at Verdura Golf & Spa Resort to consider as Verdura is a Kyle Phillips design.  Verdura was used in 2012, 2017 and 2018.

Recent form
The last ten winners of the Abu Dhabi Championship had a top 10 in their previous four starts. It is important to have some sort of momentum from the end of last season.

Nationality
The winner of this event has been from UK or Ireland seven of the last eleven years.  Again, take this with a pinch of salt as ten of those results came at Abu Dhabi GC.

Stats Analysis

Yas Links has only hosted once so we only consider stats from last year's event.

SG: Off The Tee
Thomas Pieters was 4th in this category but Viktor Hovland was the only other player inside the top five to finish inside the top 40 in this category.

SG: Approach
None of the top five in 2022 ranked inside the top 10 for SG: Approach.  Shubhankar Sharma and Victor Dubuisson ranked 11th and 12th in this category but winner. Thomas Pieters was 28th.

SG: Around The Green
Rafa Cabrera Bello was the only player to rank inside the top 25 of this category out of the players who finished in the top five.

SG: Tee to Green
Thomas Pieters ranked first Tee to Green with Viktor Hovland 4th.

SG: Putting
Two of last year's top five had a strong week on the greens.  Shubhankar Sharma and Rafa Cabrera Bello ranked 1st and 5th in this category.  

In Play Golf Betting Advice

Tough Holes
The 3rd and the 6th played as the hardest holes in 2022.  It was also notable that the par 5 18th hole was the 5th hardest hole.

Birdie Holes
The only four holes to average under par throughout the week were the 2nd, 7th, 10th and 11th.

Fast or Slow Start
Thomas Pieters was 3rd after the opening round in 2022.  Of the eight players who shot 66 or better in round one in 2022, six of those would go on to finish in the top 10.

Closing stretch
Holes 15, 17 and 18 played as three of the five hardest holes in 2022.

2022 Abu Dhabi Championship Player Quotes

 "I think the golf course is unbelievable shape. It's in great condition. The fairways are immaculate. The greens are perfect. Yeah, I mean, to start the year here in these condition is really, really nice. Honestly I didn't remember it that well from -- I only played it once or twice before. I think -- I think that a lot of the rough on the surround has grown in a little more. Visually there's some holes that they are a little intimidating off the tee, just because you see there's a little bit of trouble here and there. But once you get up there, there's plenty of room to hit it. And obviously it's a Kyle Phillips, so he designed Kingsbarns, like big, big, undulating greens. I didn't remember how big and how severe some of the greens were here. So especially when you're playing a tournament and having to try to find, okay, where are they going to putt four hole locations, there's plenty of options for them out there to do that." Rory McIlroy

"The wind obviously plays a massive part. So that's going to play very much like a links. Ball flight control, I think there are run-offs. I think you can putt from around the green, so I guess that's very links-style. So yeah, there's plenty of elements that are -- that are very linksy. It's a completely different -- I say it's a completely different test; it's a different test to what we've always had at the other golf course but at the same time, I think still, driving and ball-striking were always paramount at Abu Dhabi Golf Club and they are here, as well. As different as the course might look and feel, there's still a lot of things that you have to do right on a weekly basis." Tommy Fleetwood

"When you have greens like this and you have a lot of new slopes and you have to learn a golf course, I'm going to have to do my homework. Like I'm going to have to spend a little more time out there preparing and learning what to do because if I don't know where a slope is and I somehow hit it there and I'm a little surprised, that's going to be a problem for the entire week." Collin Morikawa

"Like it's obviously along the coast here, and it's going to be quite windy, links-style, but it's fairly, I don't know if you've been out on the course but it's fairly, you know, tricky around the greens, and so it's going to require a lot of good iron play. And decent with the short game if you miss the greens. It's a course that, you know, fully confident, I'm playing confident with my game and going into it I'd be really, really bullish about this week. But I've had two months without tournament, and I'm always a bit anxious on a week like this about how I'm going to be playing going into it.

The course here is in incredible condition. Probably one of the best-condition golf courses you'll see fairways and greens and around the greens. Obviously it's scruffy off the fairway because that's the style of golf it is. It's sand and long rough. Yeah, two completely different golf courses and two completely different tests. When you come to a new golf course, you don't know what the winning score is going to be so you actually don't even know what a about score is out there. It's a strange one. You feel like, is 5-under a good score or is 8-under a good score or are you happy to break par? You don't really know. Judging by the forecast, Friday here is going to be really, really windy. So obviously that's going be the day to baton down the hatches and try and shoot the best score you can and you have to kind of make it up on Thursday, Saturday and Sunday." Shane Lowry

"I mean, typically I've got a good -- or generally, had a good links record and stuff but if I'm honest, I kind of struggle when we come to different places where they are not generally designed on having or not meant to have links courses, so they never seem to, in my opinion, I don't think they look right. So you know, you can't enjoy every golf course you play. But that being said, you still have to go out there and hit the shots." Tyrrell Hatton

Previous Abu Dhabi Championship tips

You can access our historical Abu Dhabi Championship tips using the links below:

2022

2021

 

2023 Abu Dhabi Championship Tips

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In-play

2023 Abu Dhabi Championship In-Play Blog

21st January 2023, 4:45pm (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Molinari -13
Lee -13
Lowry -13
Forrest -12
Soderberg -12
Perez -12
Migliozzi -11
Meronk -11
Harrington -11
Rozner -11
Five players tied -10

2023 Abu Dhabi Championship Round 3 Summary

Three players are tied at the top going into the final round of the 2023 Abu Dhabi Championship.  Conditions were easier than the rest of the week, with less breeze.

2023 Abu Dhabi Championship Round 4 Weather

Sunny with the wind expected to peak at 8mph in the afternoon.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Shane Lowry is 10/3 favourite.  The Irishman leads the field in SG: Tee to Green for the opening three rounds and were it not for a cold putter, could be a few shots better off.  Lowry has a ⭐⭐⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating.  Aside from his victory at the BMW PGA Championship, recent efforts in contention have been mixed.

Min Woo Lee can be backed at 4/1.  The young Aussie edges Lowry in the Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Ratings, possessing a ⭐⭐⭐⭐ rating.  Lee ranks 11th SG: Tee to Green so far this week but has improved his Greens in Regulation stats each round.  There isn't much between the top two in the betting though, even if we do marginally favour Lee.

Francesco Molinari is 5/1 third favourite but he makes less appeal than Lee or Lowry.  Molinari hasn't had much contention experience of late and he described his opening nine holes as "scruffy" in round three.  Others would be preferred.

Where is the value?

With 15 players within three shots of the lead, we could well see someone come from off the pace and post a score.  The 17th and 18th holes are no pushover, especially if playing into the prevailing wind.  

 

Round 4 Bet

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+ - Round 3 Blog Click to collapse

20th January 2023, 6:15pm (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Molinari -10
Migliozzi -10
Scrivener -9
Coetzee -8
Bjork -8
Levy -8
Perez -8
Jamieson -8

2023 Abu Dhabi Championship Round 2 Summary

Guido Migliozzi birdied his last three holes to join compatriot Francesco Molinari at the top of the leaderboard going into the weekend.  Morning starters once again enjoyed the calmer conditions, with the wind in the afternoon being strong enough to keep a lid on scoring.  

Notable Round 2 Abu Dhabi Championship Quotes

"I started by missing a driver on one, driver on two and then made a few three-putts as well. It was not the best way to start the second day. But I stayed focused, I tried to stay on my game because I'm feeling great on the golf course and I was just waiting for some turning point and then I saved that beautiful par on the 15th.  Then after that I felt a bit better and I could accelerate, push on the accelerator and then beautiful golf shots came on the final three holes." Guido Migliozzi

"I'm very pleased. Same score as yesterday but very different day. Many more up-and-downs than yesterday. A couple of three-putts, a couple of mental errors but also lots of good stuff, a couple of long putts made. So a bit of everything. Obviously a very good back nine, which is nice. I think where you are, where I'm at at the moment, when you go through a tough patch, it's nice to see that I can pick it up again." Francesco Molinari

"I'm only three back going into the weekend and that's where I want to be......I played good today, it could have been quite low.  Its tricky out there, the greens are starting to shine." Shane Lowry

2023 Abu Dhabi Championship Round 3 Weather

Sunny with the wind expected to peak at 8mph in the afternoon.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Francesco Molinari is the 11/2 favourite.  The former Masters and Open Championship winner bounced back from three dropped shots on his opening nine holes with six birdies coming home.  There's no doubt that Molinari is playing great golf at the moment.  He was impressive at the Hero Cup last week and he's continued that form into this week.  

The big question mark over Molinari is how he copes with the pressure of leading and being in contention.  He hasn't recorded a top five finish since the Masters in 2019.  Whilst he has been in contention several times since, his Sunday performances have been no more than average.  We don't see the need to rush in and take the 11/2.

Joint leader, Guido Migliozzi, is 15/2 in the betting.  Like Molinari, he too recovered from a poor start to finish strongly.  We advised the Italian to subscribers at 125/1 at the start of the week and he's very much the man we're cheering on over the weekend.  A three time winner on the DP World Tour, he was impressive when winning the French Open at the end of last year.  There's every reason to think he hangs around over the weekend.

Shane Lowry and Victor Perez can be backed at 11/1 and 12/1 respectively.  Both players have to be respected but their price is no more than fair in our opinion.

Where is the value?

With relatively benign conditions forecast, we're looking at a player a few shots off the lead who can make a move up the leaderboard.

 

Round 3 Bet

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+ - Round 2 Blog Click to collapse

19th January 2023, 5:15pm (UK time)

 
PlayerTotal
Donald -8
Migliozzi -7
Scrivener -7
Power -6
Seven players tied -5

2023 Abu Dhabi Championship Round 1 Summary

Luke Donald rolled back the years to post a best of the day 64 and lead the Abu Dhabi Championship by a shot after the opening round.  Morning starters had a definite advantage, enjoying flat calm conditions early on.  Only two afternoon starters posted a round of -5 or better.  Several players are yet to finish their first round due to darkness.

Notable Round 1 Abu Dhabi Championship Quotes

"I played great. I'm happy that I'm playing solid from tee-to-green as well. I was looking for this last week for me as well. It's been very important to test new equipment and new feelings on the course, and the work that I am doing and I did in the winter is working great." Guido Migliozzi

"Just kind of suits my eye. It's not too tight off the tee. I think you have to pick some good lines. I think you're going to hit a lot of greens out here because you're going to hit a lot of fairways, too." Luke Donald

2023 Abu Dhabi Championship Round 2 Weather

Sunny.  The wind is expected to be much the same as round one, 3-4mph in the morning and 10-12mph in the afternoon.

How do we expect the market favourites to perform?

Irish pair, Shane Lowry and Seamus Power, enjoy joint favouritism at 15/2.  Both players are expected to contend over the weekend but it has to be noted that they play in the afternoon tomorrow.  Given the number of quality players on the leaderboard, there is no need to take single figure prices just yet.

Tommy Fleetwood is 10/1 in the betting.  The Englishman was bogey free in the opening round but he too plays in the afternoon and we're happy to leave him alone for the time being.

Guido Migliozzi is 12/1 in the betting.  Having advised him to subscribers at 125/1, we're hoping he can make further progress up the leaderboard over the remaining three rounds.

Where is the value?

We're primarily looking at morning starters who could make a move up the leaderboard in round two.  We're also looking at the side markets, including a three ball bet.

 

Round 2 Bet

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