PGA Tour Tips & Preview
RBC Heritage Preview
Starts -
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Defending Champion -
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Defending Champion -
Year |
Winner |
Thursday Tee Time |
Players in Final 6 Groups on Thursday who Finished Top 5 |
2019 |
Tiger Woods |
16th Last Group |
Koepka, D Johnson & Molinari |
2018 |
Patrick Reed |
15th Last Group |
Fowler, Spieth, Rahm & McIlroy |
2017 |
Sergio Garcia |
5th Last Group |
None |
2016 |
Danny Willett |
3rd Last Group |
Holmes |
2015 |
Jordan Spieth |
5th Last Group |
None |
2014 |
Bubba Watson |
5th Last Group |
Westwood |
2013 |
Adam Scott |
6th Last Group |
Cabrera |
2012 |
Bubba Watson |
2nd Last Group |
Mickelson, Westwood & P Hanson |
As outlined in our Tipping Record, our tipping strategy is to focus on speciality bets and value in-play. However, we have identified the following six players if you do wish to place a bet before the event begins:
Xander Schauffele - 16/1 @ William Hill
Although we are not overjoyed by his price, Xander is our pick of the favourites to go well this week. His performance at East Lake was particularly impressive, finishing 5th for SG: Off the tee, 1st for SG: Putting and 2nd for scrambling. Form figures of 3-6-5 in the last three US Open's are simply too good to ignore - with no weaknesses in his game, Xander is perfect for the toughest test in golf which simply explains his liking for this major. He has only finished outside the top 25 once in his last 10 starts since lockdown which shows the consistency to his game and it will be of upmost importance that the winner has confidence in every area of his game this week.
Patrick Reed - 35/1 @ William Hill
All the talk this week has been that it is going to be a grind and the winner will have to scramble well all week and the pantomime villain is the first name that springs to mind in that category. Patrick is terrific around the greens as showed at East Lake when he ranked 1st for Scrambling. Even more impressively, he ranked 2nd for SG: Off the tee and 1st for driving accuracy on route to his top 10 finish. Patrick has been trending in the right direction for some weeks now and he looks an ideal fit for this course.
Justin Rose - 55/1 @ William Hill
Another scrapper which springs to mind is former US Open champion Justin Rose and he appears to be the forgotten man this week out of the worlds elite. Rose is considered "out of form" at the moment although was 9th at the PGA three starts ago and 25th at his last appearance at the Northern Trust. He ranked 12th for SG: Off the tee that week, 9th SG: Tee to green and 5th GIR so his game appears in solid shape. Justin thrives at difficult golf courses, finished 3rd and 10th in his last two US Open outings and is simply too big at 55/1 given his pedigree.
Louis Oosthuizen - 80/1 @ BetVictor
The South African is playing some really steady golf of late with form figures of 25-13-33-6 and has become a consistent performer in majors in the last 5 years. He already has an Open Championship under his belt and missed out on a playoff in this event in 2015 by one stroke, in addition to a 7th place last year. Out of the 60/1-100/1 category Louis looks to be our pick of the bunch.
Abraham Ancer - 90/1 @ Bet365
This week looks set to call for a great driver of the ball and that is something Abraham does very well. He is 33rd for SG: Off the tee this year and as an added bonus for Winged Foot he is 11th for Scrambling. He finished in 14th place at East Lake without the handicap on his last start and is becoming increasingly more comfortable in this company. He may well take inspiration from Collin Morikawa's fearless performance at the PGA last month and at 90/1 it is worth chancing him contending.
Chez Reavie - 175/1 @ BetVictor
Chez finished like a train last week at the Safeway Open on route to his 3rd place finish and more importantly, his stats impressed too. He ranked 1st for driving accuracy, 1st for SG: Approach the green and 1st for SG: Tee to green. Known for finding fairways, Chez could keep out of the rough more than others this week and if he keeps that level of iron play this week, he could find himself with more birdie chances than others. Chez was also in the top 50 for scrambling on tour last season which will help around here. One final bonus, he finished 3rd at the US Open last year. He could be one to keep an eye on at a big price.
Adrian Otaegui- 66/1 @ Bet365
The Spaniard's odds have understandably been slashed for this week after a 2nd place finish at the English Championship last week. Adrian's last win on the European Tour at The Belgian Knockout in 2018 followed a 2nd place finish at the Volvo China Open so he has shown he can follow up a near miss. Finishes of 12th and 7th at Le Golf National are also a positive. He has played Celtic manor once, finishing 50th back in 2014 but he is a much improved player since then.
- 66/1 @ Bet365
Steven produced his best performance of the year last week at the English Championship, finishing 5th after three rounds of 66 or less. Last year, Steven produced his best finish of the year at the Open De France with an 11th place finish, and went on to win the next week at the Portugal Masters, so he has shown he can back up good performances in the past. Steven won't mind a bit of wind either if it blows in Wales this week, like it usually does.
Cameron Smith - 80/1 @ Bet365
Cameron hasn't played since the US Open but was playing nicely in the run up to that. We aren't overly concerned by his lack of action given he won at Sony earlier in the year after a couple of weeks off. He's finished 10th and 13th in his last two appearances here and the rough being trimmed this year will only help him further. Ranked just outside the world's top 50, he'll be keen to push on and attempt to add a second PGA Tour title to his resume.
Adam Hadwin - 125/1 @ Bet365
Adam hasn't been seen since making the cut at the US Open but don't let that put you off. As mentioned in his Player Profile, he often does his best work after a break. His sole PGA Tour win in 2017 came after a two week break and two of his last three runner up spots have also come after a break. He has two top 10's here in four starts so there's every reason to be optimistic.
Brandt Snedeker - 140/1 @ Bet365
Brandt was in the mix last week until a disappointing final round of 73 saw him fall back to 17th. However, we are willing to forgive that on account of the fact he was gushing about his game in last week's interviews, suggesting that he was as "excited" and "confident" about his game in "years." The driving accuracy stats back that up, placing him 2nd last week. He's only played here four times but has a 10th place finish as proof the test will suit.
Kyle Stanley - 200/1 @ Bet365
Kyle boasts a couple of top 10 finishes in this event. We can forgive last year's 48th place finish when he arrived in terrible form. A missed cut last week wasn't the best preparation either but on closer inspection he actually played very well in round two on his way to a 68. He's difficult to win with but worth considering at big odds. We should also mention that Beau Hossler just missed out in this category, his putting a slight worry despite excellent long game stats.
Justin Suh - 225/1 @ Bet365
The early value has gone on Justin but he's still an interesting price to keep an eye on in play. He lives in Vegas so this is a home game for him. His last appearance was at the Puntacana, where he posted a very credible 14th place. During that event he spoke of playing bounce games with Collin Morikawa and taking the money so we're happy to roll the dice (it is Vegas after all) on Justin.
Martin Laird - 275/1 @ Bet365
Martin has struggled in recent times but a return to the site of his first PGA Tour win in 2009 may be just the tonic he needs. He finished 28th last week, driving the ball really nicely (he ranked 14th SG: Tee To Green) to set himself up for this week and if he can find a bit of form with the putter he could well post a higher finish this week. We've seen Cink and Swafford win in recent weeks so we'll turn a blind eye to the fact he hasn't won since 2013.
Bernd Wiesberger - 20/1 @ William Hill
Bernd recorded a solid 43rd place finish at the US PGA on his last outing. He drove the ball really well that week and that should stand him in good stead. A three time winner in 2019, he's the player we like best out of those at the head of the market.
John Catlin - 125/1 @ William Hill
John missed the cut in Wales last week but windy conditions are not his forte and a return to calmer conditions this week should suit him. He recorded a 6th place finish at the Celtic Classic the week before and if he gets int eh mix he's a player who is capable of winning having won three times in 2018 and once in 2019 in Asia.
Xinjung Zhang - 50/1 @ Bet365
A player to follow when he is playing well, Xinjung finishes 14th in his last start at the Safeway Open. He also boasts a 5th place finish here in 2018 and a solid 14th place finish at this years Puerto Rico Open, demonstrating his liking for this type of test. A two time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2019, he can convert a chance if it arises.
Kurt Kitayama - 80/1 @ Betfred
Kurt's a very competent wind player who will relish the test this week in the Dominican Republic. He missed the cut on the number at the US Open last time out but we aren't too concerned about that given the nature of he test and the fact he's a player who can pop up with a big result having previously shown little form. His last win in Oman came after a string of missed cuts and let's not forget this is a young man who already has two European Tour wins at coastal tracks.
Beau Hossler - 80/1 @ Bet365
Beau is yet to play at Puntacana but he's worth a closer look based on his performance at the Safeway Open last time out. He opened with a 1 over par 73 but then played the next 54 holes in 15 under par. He's a sound wind player and it's interesting that he's recorded a couple of high finishes at the Houston Open, an event which has also been positive for Brice Garnett.
Sam Ryder - 100/1 @ Genting Bet
Sam finished 2nd and 12th here when the course was used on the web.com Tour. He also boasts a 3rd place finish at the Puerto Rico Open, a correlating event. His recent form has been poor but he often does his best work after a missed cut. At 100/1 he's one to watch given his liking for these type of events.
Mark Anderson - 150/1 @ SpreadEx
Mark finished 36th last time out at the Safeway Open. He's got a solid bank of form at coastal venues and he does have course experience having finished 28th here in 2016 when it was a web.com Tour event. He's a better player now having won on the Korn Ferry Tour last year and he's a lively outsider this week.
Zach Sucher - 300/1 @ SpreadEx
Zach has a 7th place finish here in 2016 when it played as a web.com Tour event. He's been playing poorly of late but we should remember that he's a player who doesn't need to be playing well to post a big finish. He posted two runner up finishes last year (one on the PGA Tour and one on the Korn Ferry Tour) and both were preceded by a missed cut. One to keep an eye on to see if he starts well.
Darius Van Driel- 150/1 @ Betfred
Darius will take great momentum into this week after firing a Sunday 66 to finish 11th place last week. He is ranked 4th for driving accuracy this year and 14th for Greens In regulation. Finished 4th at the Austrian Open in July and isn't far off taking the next step.
Romain Langasque - 55/1 @ Bet365
Romain missed the cut last week after his victory two weeks ago but the windy forecast this week will have him licking his lips at another chance of European Tour success. We've seen with Rasmus Hojgaard and Sam Horsfield in recent weeks that the modern crop aren't scared to win multiple times in close succession and there's no reason why Romain couldn't do the same in conditions that will play to his strengths.
Soren Kjeldson - 100/1 @ William Hill
Soren is a course specialist with four top 5's in his last 8 tournaments at Valderrama, including a win in 2008. Given he has made 3 of his last 4 cuts, he will be relishing coming back to his favourite course. He is also an accomplished wind player so is ticking a lot of boxes this week.
Eduardo Molinari - 225/1 @ Bet365
We thin Eduardo might be well worth keeping an eye on this week. The straight hitting Italian ranks 6th for driving accuracy this year. Missed cut last week however played well in the wind at the Welsh Open two weeks ago finishing 27th and has been in the top 30 the last two years at Valderrama.
Brandon Stone - 90/1 @ Bet365
Brandon played nicely in his last start to finish 27th at the Welsh Open. Two weeks before that he finished 6th at the English Championship. He ranks 6th for Greens in Regulation this year and is a good player to have onside if in contention.
Collin Morikawa - 22/1 @ William Hill
GBC favourite Collin Morikawa is the pick of the favourites for us this week despite missing his second PGA Tour cut last week. At 22/1, we don't think the bookmakers have fully given Collin credit yet for what he is achieving this year and are we are happy to keep championing him until they do. The missed cut isn't a major issue for him as the last time he missed the cut, he bounced back the following week with a win at Muirfield. Collin usually arrives at events with a disadvantage that he hasn't seen the course as much as his competitors but arrives at Olympia fields this week with a 13th place in 2017 and 2nd place in 2018 on the Amateur circuit. He showed at the PGA Championship just what he can do when it's a level playing field in terms of competitive course experience.
Matthew Wolff - 45/1 @ Bet365
Matt played 3 really solid rounds last week however a disaster Saturday 77 cost him a good finish. In spite of this he still managed to finish 7th SG: Off the tee and he performed similar at the PGA Championship on the road to a 4th place finish. The clincher for us this week is that Wolff arrives at Olympia Fields with more course experience than most, including a 13th place finish in 2017 and a WIN in 2018. interestingly he won that even by one shot ahead of Collin Morikawa and it wouldn't be a major surprise to see a similar result.
Cameron Champ - 80/1 @ Bet365
Cameron is another young gun we are willing to forgive for his missed cut last week in what will be a completely different test this week. We much prefer to look at how he performed in his previous appearance at the PGA Championship. Although he fell to 10th place in the end, Cameron was right in the thick of it throughout and will have learned lots from that experience. As an added bonus he won the Illini Invitational in 2016 at Olympia Fields.
Will Gordon - 66/1 @ Bet365
Will has finished 27th and 41st in his last two starts and although he hasn't played in a few weeks, his best finish of the season came on the first event back after lockdown where he finished 3rd at the Travelers Championship. He isn't usually known for his driving accuracy but it was interesting he was 13th for that category on his last start at the Wyndham Championship. One of the longest drivers on tour and 4th for greens in regulation this year, if he can piece it all together he could go very well.
Julien Brun 66/1 - William Hill
With the exception of a 6th place finish at the Euram Bank Open, Julien has been playing the Pro Golf Tour since lockdown. He's yet to record a finish worse than 8th in his last six starts and whilst he's been playing at a lower level the confidence gained should see him go well this week.
Jens Fahrbring - 80/1 @Bet365
We keep faith with Jens despite a missed cut last week. His 3rd place on the Challenge Tour two weeks ago coupled with good approach play last week is enough for us to chance him again. He's on the comeback trail having missed most of 2018 and all of 2019, and is a two time winner on the Challenge Tour.
Andres Romero - 100/1 @ Genting Bet
In this type of field Andres is worth keeping an eye on. He's only teed it up twice since golf resumed following the break for Coronavirus but four consistent rounds last week gives us cause for cautious optimism. He won out of the blue in 2017 and posted a 2nd place finish on the European Tour last year. At triple figure odds he's one to watch if he starts well.
Maverick Antcliff - 125/1 @ Genting Bet
Maverick has been on our radar for a while now owing to his excellent long game stats. He missed the cut at the Portugal Masters but again demonstrated fine iron play as he ranked 4th for Strokes Gained: Approach over the two rounds. He won three times in China last season and he remains one to keep an eye on.
Henric Sturehed 150/1 - 888Sport
Henric shot a 59 over lockdown and has demonstrated enough over the past few weeks for us to put him up as one to watch. A couple of top 5 finishes on the Nordic Golf League preceded a 33rd place finish at the Northern Ireland Open on the Challenge Tour. He 5th place finish in this event last year (albeit on the Challenge Tour) so hopefully that's a good omen.
Gavin Green - 66/1 @ William Hill
The on-form American arrives in Ireland with great confidence after a 10th and 8th in his last two starts. He seems like a winner in waiting and will be inspired by wins by compatriots John Catlin and Tyler Koivisto recently. He is a debutant to Galgorm Castle however we mentioned in the blog six of the last 8 winners here have been. Keep an eye on Veerman continuing his good form.
Romain Langasque 45/1 - 888Sport
Romain did us a favour at the Wales Open earlier this summer in similar weather conditions to those forecasted this week and we expect him to go well again here. Finished 3rd at this course last year after three missed cuts on the bounce, including a top 5 for SG: Putting which shows his liking for the greens. He is clearly striking the ball well enough at the moment as you don't finish 34th at a US Open or 17th at Valderrama if you're off your game. A proven bad weather player, he can emulate Sam Horsfield and John Catlin with his second post-lockdown win.
Renato Paratore - 80/1 @ William Hill
We were surprised to see Renato priced up as high as 90/1 at the start of the week, given his performance at Winged Foot where he finished 31st. That was a terrific display in elite company and he should return to a weaker field full of confidence. Finished 28th here last year after two missed cuts and has a 7th place finish at the Alfred Dunhill Links. Ranks 9th this year for SG: Approach which is a bonus.
Guido Migliozzi 100/1 - 888Sport
It is another Italian who gets the nod here. Guido was also 28th here last year after three missed cuts on the spin. It isn't the first time he has shown a liking for coastal golf courses after his 4th place in Oman earlier this year and also showed he's capable in the wind finishing 6th in his 2nd last start at Valderrama. A 36th place at the Portugal Masters followed and he should be suitable rested for the challenge this week.
1. A lie in on Thursday is an advantage.
“If there’s a golf course in heaven, I hope it’s like Augusta National. I just don’t want an early tee time.” Gary Player
Lets talk about tee times. It's well known that to have a chance of winning the coveted green jacket you need to be in the final groups out on Sunday (see in-play info below). However, it is less well known that in recent years a late first round tee time has been equally as important at Augusta.
Whilst the last two winners at Augusta (Tiger Woods and Patrick Reed) have teed off around 11am local time (11.04 and 11.15), the 6 winners preceding them played in the final 6 groups on Thursday. Furthermore, when Tiger and Reed won having not played in the final 6 groups on Thursday, the players who finished in 2nd place those years all teed off in the final 6 groups on Thursday. The table below gives the full breakdown.
So why the trend in the last 8 years towards having a later tee time?
One theory is that as online coverage of the first round has become readily available there is an advantage in watching how the early players fare. Live TV coverage of The Masters on Thursday and Friday remains limited but since 2014 it has been possible to watch coverage online of featured groups at Masters.com and this allows the players in the final groups on Thursday time to assess conditions before they have even teed off.
Xander Schauffele - 16/1 @ William Hill
Although we are not overjoyed by his price, Xander is our pick of the favourites to go well this week. His performance at East Lake was particularly impressive, finishing 5th for SG: Off the tee, 1st for SG: Putting and 2nd for scrambling. Form figures of 3-6-5 in the last three US Open's are simply too good to ignore - with no weaknesses in his game, Xander is perfect for the toughest test in golf which simply explains his liking for this major. He has only finished outside the top 25 once in his last 10 starts since lockdown which shows the consistency to his game and it will be of upmost importance that the winner has confidence in every area of his game this week.
Patrick Reed - 35/1 @ William Hill
All the talk this week has been that it is going to be a grind and the winner will have to scramble well all week and the pantomime villain is the first name that springs to mind in that category. Patrick is terrific around the greens as showed at East Lake when he ranked 1st for Scrambling. Even more impressively, he ranked 2nd for SG: Off the tee and 1st for driving accuracy on route to his top 10 finish. Patrick has been trending in the right direction for some weeks now and he looks an ideal fit for this course.
Justin Rose - 55/1 @ William Hill
Another scrapper which springs to mind is former US Open champion Justin Rose and he appears to be the forgotten man this week out of the worlds elite. Rose is considered "out of form" at the moment although was 9th at the PGA three starts ago and 25th at his last appearance at the Northern Trust. He ranked 12th for SG: Off the tee that week, 9th SG: Tee to green and 5th GIR so his game appears in solid shape. Justin thrives at difficult golf courses, finished 3rd and 10th in his last two US Open outings and is simply too big at 55/1 given his pedigree.
Louis Oosthuizen - 80/1 @ BetVictor
The South African is playing some really steady golf of late with form figures of 25-13-33-6 and has become a consistent performer in majors in the last 5 years. He already has an Open Championship under his belt and missed out on a playoff in this event in 2015 by one stroke, in addition to a 7th place last year. Out of the 60/1-100/1 category Louis looks to be our pick of the bunch.
Abraham Ancer - 90/1 @ Bet365
This week looks set to call for a great driver of the ball and that is something Abraham does very well. He is 33rd for SG: Off the tee this year and as an added bonus for Winged Foot he is 11th for Scrambling. He finished in 14th place at East Lake without the handicap on his last start and is becoming increasingly more comfortable in this company. He may well take inspiration from Collin Morikawa's fearless performance at the PGA last month and at 90/1 it is worth chancing him contending.
Chez Reavie - 175/1 @ BetVictor
Chez finished like a train last week at the Safeway Open on route to his 3rd place finish and more importantly, his stats impressed too. He ranked 1st for driving accuracy, 1st for SG: Approach the green and 1st for SG: Tee to green. Known for finding fairways, Chez could keep out of the rough more than others this week and if he keeps that level of iron play this week, he could find himself with more birdie chances than others. Chez was also in the top 50 for scrambling on tour last season which will help around here. One final bonus, he finished 3rd at the US Open last year. He could be one to keep an eye on at a big price.
Adrian Otaegui- 66/1 @ Bet365
The Spaniard's odds have understandably been slashed for this week after a 2nd place finish at the English Championship last week. Adrian's last win on the European Tour at The Belgian Knockout in 2018 followed a 2nd place finish at the Volvo China Open so he has shown he can follow up a near miss. Finishes of 12th and 7th at Le Golf National are also a positive. He has played Celtic manor once, finishing 50th back in 2014 but he is a much improved player since then.
- 66/1 @ Bet365
Steven produced his best performance of the year last week at the English Championship, finishing 5th after three rounds of 66 or less. Last year, Steven produced his best finish of the year at the Open De France with an 11th place finish, and went on to win the next week at the Portugal Masters, so he has shown he can back up good performances in the past. Steven won't mind a bit of wind either if it blows in Wales this week, like it usually does.
Cameron Smith - 80/1 @ Bet365
Cameron hasn't played since the US Open but was playing nicely in the run up to that. We aren't overly concerned by his lack of action given he won at Sony earlier in the year after a couple of weeks off. He's finished 10th and 13th in his last two appearances here and the rough being trimmed this year will only help him further. Ranked just outside the world's top 50, he'll be keen to push on and attempt to add a second PGA Tour title to his resume.
Adam Hadwin - 125/1 @ Bet365
Adam hasn't been seen since making the cut at the US Open but don't let that put you off. As mentioned in his Player Profile, he often does his best work after a break. His sole PGA Tour win in 2017 came after a two week break and two of his last three runner up spots have also come after a break. He has two top 10's here in four starts so there's every reason to be optimistic.
Brandt Snedeker - 140/1 @ Bet365
Brandt was in the mix last week until a disappointing final round of 73 saw him fall back to 17th. However, we are willing to forgive that on account of the fact he was gushing about his game in last week's interviews, suggesting that he was as "excited" and "confident" about his game in "years." The driving accuracy stats back that up, placing him 2nd last week. He's only played here four times but has a 10th place finish as proof the test will suit.
Kyle Stanley - 200/1 @ Bet365
Kyle boasts a couple of top 10 finishes in this event. We can forgive last year's 48th place finish when he arrived in terrible form. A missed cut last week wasn't the best preparation either but on closer inspection he actually played very well in round two on his way to a 68. He's difficult to win with but worth considering at big odds. We should also mention that Beau Hossler just missed out in this category, his putting a slight worry despite excellent long game stats.
Justin Suh - 225/1 @ Bet365
The early value has gone on Justin but he's still an interesting price to keep an eye on in play. He lives in Vegas so this is a home game for him. His last appearance was at the Puntacana, where he posted a very credible 14th place. During that event he spoke of playing bounce games with Collin Morikawa and taking the money so we're happy to roll the dice (it is Vegas after all) on Justin.
Martin Laird - 275/1 @ Bet365
Martin has struggled in recent times but a return to the site of his first PGA Tour win in 2009 may be just the tonic he needs. He finished 28th last week, driving the ball really nicely (he ranked 14th SG: Tee To Green) to set himself up for this week and if he can find a bit of form with the putter he could well post a higher finish this week. We've seen Cink and Swafford win in recent weeks so we'll turn a blind eye to the fact he hasn't won since 2013.
Bernd Wiesberger - 20/1 @ William Hill
Bernd recorded a solid 43rd place finish at the US PGA on his last outing. He drove the ball really well that week and that should stand him in good stead. A three time winner in 2019, he's the player we like best out of those at the head of the market.
John Catlin - 125/1 @ William Hill
John missed the cut in Wales last week but windy conditions are not his forte and a return to calmer conditions this week should suit him. He recorded a 6th place finish at the Celtic Classic the week before and if he gets int eh mix he's a player who is capable of winning having won three times in 2018 and once in 2019 in Asia.
Xinjung Zhang - 50/1 @ Bet365
A player to follow when he is playing well, Xinjung finishes 14th in his last start at the Safeway Open. He also boasts a 5th place finish here in 2018 and a solid 14th place finish at this years Puerto Rico Open, demonstrating his liking for this type of test. A two time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2019, he can convert a chance if it arises.
Kurt Kitayama - 80/1 @ Betfred
Kurt's a very competent wind player who will relish the test this week in the Dominican Republic. He missed the cut on the number at the US Open last time out but we aren't too concerned about that given the nature of he test and the fact he's a player who can pop up with a big result having previously shown little form. His last win in Oman came after a string of missed cuts and let's not forget this is a young man who already has two European Tour wins at coastal tracks.
Beau Hossler - 80/1 @ Bet365
Beau is yet to play at Puntacana but he's worth a closer look based on his performance at the Safeway Open last time out. He opened with a 1 over par 73 but then played the next 54 holes in 15 under par. He's a sound wind player and it's interesting that he's recorded a couple of high finishes at the Houston Open, an event which has also been positive for Brice Garnett.
Sam Ryder - 100/1 @ Genting Bet
Sam finished 2nd and 12th here when the course was used on the web.com Tour. He also boasts a 3rd place finish at the Puerto Rico Open, a correlating event. His recent form has been poor but he often does his best work after a missed cut. At 100/1 he's one to watch given his liking for these type of events.
Mark Anderson - 150/1 @ SpreadEx
Mark finished 36th last time out at the Safeway Open. He's got a solid bank of form at coastal venues and he does have course experience having finished 28th here in 2016 when it was a web.com Tour event. He's a better player now having won on the Korn Ferry Tour last year and he's a lively outsider this week.
Zach Sucher - 300/1 @ SpreadEx
Zach has a 7th place finish here in 2016 when it played as a web.com Tour event. He's been playing poorly of late but we should remember that he's a player who doesn't need to be playing well to post a big finish. He posted two runner up finishes last year (one on the PGA Tour and one on the Korn Ferry Tour) and both were preceded by a missed cut. One to keep an eye on to see if he starts well.
Darius Van Driel- 150/1 @ Betfred
Darius will take great momentum into this week after firing a Sunday 66 to finish 11th place last week. He is ranked 4th for driving accuracy this year and 14th for Greens In regulation. Finished 4th at the Austrian Open in July and isn't far off taking the next step.
Romain Langasque - 55/1 @ Bet365
Romain missed the cut last week after his victory two weeks ago but the windy forecast this week will have him licking his lips at another chance of European Tour success. We've seen with Rasmus Hojgaard and Sam Horsfield in recent weeks that the modern crop aren't scared to win multiple times in close succession and there's no reason why Romain couldn't do the same in conditions that will play to his strengths.
Soren Kjeldson - 100/1 @ William Hill
Soren is a course specialist with four top 5's in his last 8 tournaments at Valderrama, including a win in 2008. Given he has made 3 of his last 4 cuts, he will be relishing coming back to his favourite course. He is also an accomplished wind player so is ticking a lot of boxes this week.
Eduardo Molinari - 225/1 @ Bet365
We thin Eduardo might be well worth keeping an eye on this week. The straight hitting Italian ranks 6th for driving accuracy this year. Missed cut last week however played well in the wind at the Welsh Open two weeks ago finishing 27th and has been in the top 30 the last two years at Valderrama.
Brandon Stone - 90/1 @ Bet365
Brandon played nicely in his last start to finish 27th at the Welsh Open. Two weeks before that he finished 6th at the English Championship. He ranks 6th for Greens in Regulation this year and is a good player to have onside if in contention.
Collin Morikawa - 22/1 @ William Hill
GBC favourite Collin Morikawa is the pick of the favourites for us this week despite missing his second PGA Tour cut last week. At 22/1, we don't think the bookmakers have fully given Collin credit yet for what he is achieving this year and are we are happy to keep championing him until they do. The missed cut isn't a major issue for him as the last time he missed the cut, he bounced back the following week with a win at Muirfield. Collin usually arrives at events with a disadvantage that he hasn't seen the course as much as his competitors but arrives at Olympia fields this week with a 13th place in 2017 and 2nd place in 2018 on the Amateur circuit. He showed at the PGA Championship just what he can do when it's a level playing field in terms of competitive course experience.
Matthew Wolff - 45/1 @ Bet365
Matt played 3 really solid rounds last week however a disaster Saturday 77 cost him a good finish. In spite of this he still managed to finish 7th SG: Off the tee and he performed similar at the PGA Championship on the road to a 4th place finish. The clincher for us this week is that Wolff arrives at Olympia Fields with more course experience than most, including a 13th place finish in 2017 and a WIN in 2018. interestingly he won that even by one shot ahead of Collin Morikawa and it wouldn't be a major surprise to see a similar result.
Cameron Champ - 80/1 @ Bet365
Cameron is another young gun we are willing to forgive for his missed cut last week in what will be a completely different test this week. We much prefer to look at how he performed in his previous appearance at the PGA Championship. Although he fell to 10th place in the end, Cameron was right in the thick of it throughout and will have learned lots from that experience. As an added bonus he won the Illini Invitational in 2016 at Olympia Fields.
Will Gordon - 66/1 @ Bet365
Will has finished 27th and 41st in his last two starts and although he hasn't played in a few weeks, his best finish of the season came on the first event back after lockdown where he finished 3rd at the Travelers Championship. He isn't usually known for his driving accuracy but it was interesting he was 13th for that category on his last start at the Wyndham Championship. One of the longest drivers on tour and 4th for greens in regulation this year, if he can piece it all together he could go very well.
Julien Brun 66/1 - William Hill
With the exception of a 6th place finish at the Euram Bank Open, Julien has been playing the Pro Golf Tour since lockdown. He's yet to record a finish worse than 8th in his last six starts and whilst he's been playing at a lower level the confidence gained should see him go well this week.
Jens Fahrbring - 80/1 @Bet365
We keep faith with Jens despite a missed cut last week. His 3rd place on the Challenge Tour two weeks ago coupled with good approach play last week is enough for us to chance him again. He's on the comeback trail having missed most of 2018 and all of 2019, and is a two time winner on the Challenge Tour.
Andres Romero - 100/1 @ Genting Bet
In this type of field Andres is worth keeping an eye on. He's only teed it up twice since golf resumed following the break for Coronavirus but four consistent rounds last week gives us cause for cautious optimism. He won out of the blue in 2017 and posted a 2nd place finish on the European Tour last year. At triple figure odds he's one to watch if he starts well.
Maverick Antcliff - 125/1 @ Genting Bet
Maverick has been on our radar for a while now owing to his excellent long game stats. He missed the cut at the Portugal Masters but again demonstrated fine iron play as he ranked 4th for Strokes Gained: Approach over the two rounds. He won three times in China last season and he remains one to keep an eye on.
Henric Sturehed 150/1 - 888Sport
Henric shot a 59 over lockdown and has demonstrated enough over the past few weeks for us to put him up as one to watch. A couple of top 5 finishes on the Nordic Golf League preceded a 33rd place finish at the Northern Ireland Open on the Challenge Tour. He 5th place finish in this event last year (albeit on the Challenge Tour) so hopefully that's a good omen.
Gavin Green - 66/1 @ William Hill
The on-form American arrives in Ireland with great confidence after a 10th and 8th in his last two starts. He seems like a winner in waiting and will be inspired by wins by compatriots John Catlin and Tyler Koivisto recently. He is a debutant to Galgorm Castle however we mentioned in the blog six of the last 8 winners here have been. Keep an eye on Veerman continuing his good form.
Romain Langasque 45/1 - 888Sport
Romain did us a favour at the Wales Open earlier this summer in similar weather conditions to those forecasted this week and we expect him to go well again here. Finished 3rd at this course last year after three missed cuts on the bounce, including a top 5 for SG: Putting which shows his liking for the greens. He is clearly striking the ball well enough at the moment as you don't finish 34th at a US Open or 17th at Valderrama if you're off your game. A proven bad weather player, he can emulate Sam Horsfield and John Catlin with his second post-lockdown win.
Renato Paratore - 80/1 @ William Hill
We were surprised to see Renato priced up as high as 90/1 at the start of the week, given his performance at Winged Foot where he finished 31st. That was a terrific display in elite company and he should return to a weaker field full of confidence. Finished 28th here last year after two missed cuts and has a 7th place finish at the Alfred Dunhill Links. Ranks 9th this year for SG: Approach which is a bonus.
Guido Migliozzi 100/1 - 888Sport
It is another Italian who gets the nod here. Guido was also 28th here last year after three missed cuts on the spin. It isn't the first time he has shown a liking for coastal golf courses after his 4th place in Oman earlier this year and also showed he's capable in the wind finishing 6th in his 2nd last start at Valderrama. A 36th place at the Portugal Masters followed and he should be suitable rested for the challenge this week.
1. A lie in on Thursday is an advantage.
“If there’s a golf course in heaven, I hope it’s like Augusta National. I just don’t want an early tee time.” Gary Player
Lets talk about tee times. It's well known that to have a chance of winning the coveted green jacket you need to be in the final groups out on Sunday (see in-play info below). However, it is less well known that in recent years a late first round tee time has been equally as important at Augusta.
Whilst the last two winners at Augusta (Tiger Woods and Patrick Reed) have teed off around 11am local time (11.04 and 11.15), the 6 winners preceding them played in the final 6 groups on Thursday. Furthermore, when Tiger and Reed won having not played in the final 6 groups on Thursday, the players who finished in 2nd place those years all teed off in the final 6 groups on Thursday. The table below gives the full breakdown.
So why the trend in the last 8 years towards having a later tee time?
One theory is that as online coverage of the first round has become readily available there is an advantage in watching how the early players fare. Live TV coverage of The Masters on Thursday and Friday remains limited but since 2014 it has been possible to watch coverage online of featured groups at Masters.com and this allows the players in the final groups on Thursday time to assess conditions before they have even teed off.
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