2020 Charles Schwab Challenge

Welcome to the Golf Betting Club Charles Schwab Challenge In-Play Betting Blog.  Betting advice will be given during the tournament but check out our event preview and watchlist here.

14 June 2020

Leaderboard and Prices as of 11am (Betfair Exchange) 

-13 Schauffele - 4.9
-12 Thomas - 6.4
-12 Woodland 10.5
-12 Grace 17.0
-12 Spieth - 8.6
-12 Morikawa - 9.8
-11 Varner - 36.0
-11 Berger - 28.0
-10 Six players tied.

It was another good day for GBC yesterday as our two ball tip (1pt @ evens) Chris Kirk cruised to victory against Richy Werenski. Meanwhile in the outright market, the heavyweights of golf were jostling for position in a tournament that very much has a Major feel to it, given the strength of the leaderboard. Xander Schauffele was able to snatch the overnight lead with a birdie at the 18th but the chasing pack is stacked with major winners and it very much remains a tough event to call.

Before we take a look at the front runners, it is important to acknowledge that today's final round is going to be unique in the aspect that it will be the first event these heavyweights have battled down the stretch without any fans on course. Justin Thomas commented on this after his round yesterday saying, "It's going to be different, especially come those last couple of holes if you have a lead or if you're trying to chase someone down. It will be interesting to see how that adrenaline plays a role". Rory Mcllroy who underperformed yesterday only managing a 69, is also of the opinion it will have a different feel, "The first couple of days it was fine but definitely today it felt strange. I'm sure tomorrow will feel pretty strange too." However, ultimately Branden Grace summarised what it all comes down to, "We're here to win a golf tournament. Whether there's 40,000 people or four people watching". 

So let's take a quick look at the six market leaders:

Xander Schaufelle - Without a doubt the man to beat now, a round that contained 6 birdies and over 80% Driving Accuracy and GIR. However, his final round performance recently with a lead is a concern (click here for full details). 132nd for Round 4 Late Scoring Average in 2020 also poor, currently 132nd on tour.

Justin Thomas - Justin only hit 35.71% of fairways yesterday and also his lowest GIR of the week. He has relied on some amazing scrambling all week which could prove important tomorrow though and also boasts an incredible win rate for his age.

Jordan Spieth - On our event preview 'GBC Watchlist'. Led for much of the back 9 yesterday however a sloppy finish cost him a share of the lead. One of the biggest players to feed off crowds so may be disadvantaged. Remains a danger however enough signs there to show he's not value at single figures.

Gary Woodland - The U.S. Open champion is a major threat, always been doubts over his Sunday performances in the mix however was flawless to win his maiden major. One to watch.

Collin Morikawa - The next superstar of golf rallied on the back 9 to finish one off the pace. Won at Barracuda from a couple of shots back but this is a big step up in grade. Will be asking a lot to win however certainly has the talent to do so. 

Branden Grace - By far the biggest price of the front runners, he is usually very good under pressure so the price is tempting. 29% Driving Accuracy yesterday is enough to put us off but could play a big part if starts hitting fairways. 

Sunday's Bets
Given the quality of the leaderboard and the variables, it is difficult to pick a winner with any confidence today. The last 18 winners of this event have been within 3 shots of the lead with 18 holes to play so it is likely the winner will come from -10 or better. With that in mind, we recommend a small outside bet which has a good chance of an each way win. Abraham Ancer  sits 3 shots back and is on offer at 50/1 at Boyle Sports who are offering 1/5 4 places (most bookies just doing 3 places). Abraham has been solid all week, he finds fairways regularly and is sure to give himself some good looks at birdies tomorrow. Ranked 9th for Round 4 Late Scoring Average in 2020 and generally quite solid in the mix. If the wind picks up slightly it will suit him also. 

0.5pts Each Way 1/5 1,2,3,4 Abraham Ancer 50/1 @ BoyleSports

Our next bet is a two ball match bet, Corey Conners to beat Justin Rose. Justin was 1st round leader however has only played the last 35 holes in 3 under par. likewise his stats have went backwards, only hitting 43% of fairways yesterday. He has been heavily reliant on his putting this week and could find it hard to match Conners tee to green excellence.  Conners is 33rd for Round 4 Late Scoring Average whilst Rose is 180th in 2020.

0.75pts Conners to beat Rose 6/4 @ GentingBet 

Our final bet is serial runner up, Charles Howell III to finish top 20.  Charles currently sits 22nd but upon closer inspection of his play that doesn't tell the whole story.  He was evidently rusty through his first seven holes on Thursday as he was 3 over par.  However, he has played the next 47 holes in 10 under par.  A continuation of this form over the final 18 holes will see him comfortably finish within the top 20.  His improvement over rounds 2 and 3 are backed up by his stats for SG: Tee to Green, which have improved each round.  Finally, Charles has shot under par final rounds in his last seven 4th round appearances.

0.5pts Charles Howell to finish Top-20 2/1 @ William Hill

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13 June 2020

Leaderboard and Prices as of 11am (Betfair Exchange) 

-11 Varner - 13.0
-10 Spieth - 8.4
-10 DeChambeau - 6.4
-9 Mcllroy - 5.4
-9 Morikawa - 12.5
-9 Schauffele - 11.5
-8 Five Players tied.

GBC landed its first win yesterday with Jordan Spieth placing 2nd at 25/1 in the '2nd Round Leader' market but oh it could have been so much better! Jordan shot out the traps in the morning, six under par for the day through 11 holes with a two shot lead heading into the 3rd hole (his 12th), when disaster struck.

The four putt double bogey was followed by another bogey on the 4th and all of a sudden he was fighting just to get a place. To his credit, he fought back admirably with birdies at 5 and 6 to end the day in 2nd to land the each way money and a profit of 6.25 points for our followers. 

Meanwhile, Harold Varner III played the exact same stretch of holes in five under par, including six one putts in his last 6 holes to nick the lead by one. This was a tremendous effort considering he began the day with a triple bogey 7 on his first hole. He attributed the comeback to a positive attitude, after the round he said, "Obviously not the start I wanted, but it's just a part of golf. If I would have tripled the last, it would have added up to the same."

Whilst all this was going on Rory Mcllroy was blitzing his way round, shooting 63 to join the chasing pack on -9. An impeccable driving display and a much improved putter was a warning to the field that he is now the man to beat. Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa both got it to -9 with solid rounds and Justin Thomas would feel a little disappointed with his 68 to get to -8. In the afternoon, the biggest charge came from Bryson DeChambeau who fired a bogey free 65 to tie Spieth in 2nd place. First round leader Justin Rose struggled all day could only manage a 69 to get to -8.

Looking at the leaderboard going into today, it is impossible not to see one of the big boys going low. With no wind, somewhere around -20 looks set to be the winning score which means anyone -7 or below would have to have a sensational weekend. Although Harold Varner III has been playing well up until now and he is sounding confident, we can't get away from his Pressure Performance Rating which you can read all about here. It is hard to see past Rory now if he drives the ball like he did today, however 5.4 is plenty short enough so we will look to the two-ball market for today's tip.

Saturdays Bet
Our only bet today is a straight head to head two-ball bet where we think Chris Kirk should be big favourite to beat Richy Werenski. Kirk has a great record around Colonial, only finishing outside the top 16 twice in eight attempts and winning here in 2015. Werenski enjoyed an amazing day on the greens yesterday which he should fins hard to replicate today. Werenski has a missed cut and a 74th place finish at Colonial to his name.  Chris has struggled since his return from time off to battle his problem with alcohol but should have enough to see off Richy today who has a particularly bad round 3 scoring record (192nd) in 2020.
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1pt Chris Kirk to beat Ricky Werenski - Evens Bet365 (2.40pm (BST) tee off)


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12 June 2020

Leaderboard and Prices as of 10am (Betfair Exchange) 

-7 Rose - 10.0
-7 Varner - 27.0
-6 Thomas - 7.0
-6 Ancer - 24.0
-6 Vegas - 55.0
-6 Morikawa - 13.5
-5 Nine Players tied.

After three months of waiting, Colonial member Ryan Palmer restarted the PGA Tour with a nervy opening swing and it was a sign of things to come for the rest of the day. No crowds cheering them on the first tee, no trampled down lies in the rough, no human shields from the ball bounding towards the trees, welcome to the life of an amateur golfer! The eerie silence was always going to take some adapting. As Gary Woodland put it after his opening round of 66, "“I told my caddie early on, I didn't feel like I was hitting it as far because my adrenaline wasn't up". It might have felt strange to Gary at first but he soon got the hang of it, finishing with five birdies in the last seven holes!

One person who didn't struggle to get to grip with the new tournament atmosphere was Justin Rose who raced to -7 under par through 12 holes. He parred in his last six holes (with extremely fortuitous help from a tree shooting his ball back out on to the fairway on the 5th), securing the morning lead and setting the target for the afternoon starters. Much had been talked about who would benefit the most from the Coronavirus break and this was an obvious example of an out of form player using the break to finetune issues with their game. Our player profile indicated this break could be a big advantage for Justin; "The pause in golf for Coronavirus will allow Justin to re-evaluate his equipment setup and he may be one of the big beneficiaries of the break in golf."

Another player who will be hopeful to have a similar turn of fortunes will be one of our event preview 'GBC Weekly Watchlist' selections - Jordan Spieth, who is two shots back after an opening 66. Similar to Gary Woodland, he began his round slow with a level par front 9 (including a bogey at the first), however rallied on the back nine with five birdies. In particular his putting looked like the Jordan of old and it looks like he should take lots of momentum into tomorrow.

Now for the serious stuff...who's the value after 18 holes. Inevitably given the quality of the field, there is an abundance of talent near the top of the leaderboard, in fact there are 25 players within three shots. One off the lead, Justin Thomas heads the market and quite rightly so given his win rate. The next superstar of golf , Collin Morikawa is also lurking at -6 and Top 20 players such as Bryson DeChambeau, Gary Woodland and Xander Schauffele are all lurking as well as the aforementioned Jordan Spieth. Pre-event favourite Rory Mcllroy is five shots back at -2, along with Brooks Koepka, with Jon Rahm one further back at -1.

Given the number of quality players up there, this is very much still a lottery and it is advised to wait until Saturday before getting involved in the outright market. If you are desperate for a bit of interest today, Australian Open Champion Matt Jones is three shots back and represents value at anything over 200 on the Betfair Exchange and Tony Finau is five shots back and well capable of catching up at a course he has shown he can go low, 80 represents a fair price.

However, we have spotted a bit of value in the 'Round 2 Leader' market, with Jordan Spieth 25/1 at Bet365 to be leading after 36 holes. He is out early today so should enjoy the soft greens and although he has a lot of quality to pass, he is only two shots off the lead and well capable of going low at Colonial. Our player profile indicates he was 1st for Round 2 Scoring in 2019 and he hit 83.33% of greens in regulation yesterday. Those two stats combined with how smooth his putting stroke looked yesterday we feel he is worth a small play. We'll be back tomorrow afternoon to assess the state of play at halfway.

Tip - 1pt Each Way (4 places) Jordan Spieth '2nd Round Leader' 25/1 Bet365. 

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