European Tour In-Play Tips
Alfred Dunhill Championship In-Play Tips
Welcome to the Alfred Dunhill Championship In-Play Betting Blog. In-play betting advice and tips will be given on this page but to read our event preview click here.
28 November 2020 3.30pm
-14 Meronk
-13 Schaper
-11 Bezuidenhout
-10 Crocker
-10 Arnaus
Adrian Meronk takes a one shot lead into the final round after an eventful Saturday at Leopard Creek. Looking nervy on the opening holes, Meronk dropped shots at the 3rd and 4th to fall a shot behind J B Hansen. In typical European Tour fashion, Hansen looked well in control until he carded a disastrous 8 at the 11th hole. Meronk then played within himself on the back nine to ensure he led with a round to go.
Meronk has shortened slightly (9/4 now) in the betting despite his lead now being only one shot. He did well to compose himself after a shaky front nine and he should be commended for that. However, it was notable that he layed up at the par 5 18th after booming a drive and that level of caution is unlikely to get the job done tomorrow. He had somewhat of a relaxed back nine after Hansen's aberration and it's unlikely he'll get it that easy tomorrow.
Meronk's nearest challengers are two young South Africans, Jayden Schaper and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. Both clients of Niall Horan's Modest Management company, they possess enough talent to reel Meronk in. Bezuidenhout has a couple of wins on the Sunshine Tour and a win at the Andalucia Masters in 2019. Given he's -1 for the front 9 and -10 for the back nine this week, he'll likely need a faster start tomorrow.
Jayden Schaper has yet to win on the Sunshine Tour and whilst there's no doubting his talent, he may need some more experience in contention before winning an event like this. He's been in the mix a couple of times now (both as an amateur and a pro) and hasn't really imposed himself. A high finish is likely but like Nienaber last week, he may benefit from the experience with a view to winning elsewhere soon.
Further back, Adri Arnaus and Sean Crocker are both capable of a low closing round. Both players have runner up finishes have been knocking on the door of a win on the European Tour in recent times. They'll be relishing the chance to attack the leaders tomorrow.
-14 Meronk
-13 Schaper
-11 Bezuidenhout
-10 Crocker
-10 Arnaus
Adrian Meronk takes a one shot lead into the final round after an eventful Saturday at Leopard Creek. Looking nervy on the opening holes, Meronk dropped shots at the 3rd and 4th to fall a shot behind J B Hansen. In typical European Tour fashion, Hansen looked well in control until he carded a disastrous 8 at the 11th hole. Meronk then played within himself on the back nine to ensure he led with a round to go.
Meronk has shortened slightly (9/4 now) in the betting despite his lead now being only one shot. He did well to compose himself after a shaky front nine and he should be commended for that. However, it was notable that he layed up at the par 5 18th after booming a drive and that level of caution is unlikely to get the job done tomorrow. He had somewhat of a relaxed back nine after Hansen's aberration and it's unlikely he'll get it that easy tomorrow.
Meronk's nearest challengers are two young South Africans, Jayden Schaper and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. Both clients of Niall Horan's Modest Management company, they possess enough talent to reel Meronk in. Bezuidenhout has a couple of wins on the Sunshine Tour and a win at the Andalucia Masters in 2019. Given he's -1 for the front 9 and -10 for the back nine this week, he'll likely need a faster start tomorrow.
Jayden Schaper has yet to win on the Sunshine Tour and whilst there's no doubting his talent, he may need some more experience in contention before winning an event like this. He's been in the mix a couple of times now (both as an amateur and a pro) and hasn't really imposed himself. A high finish is likely but like Nienaber last week, he may benefit from the experience with a view to winning elsewhere soon.
Further back, Adri Arnaus and Sean Crocker are both capable of a low closing round. Both players have runner up finishes have been knocking on the door of a win on the European Tour in recent times. They'll be relishing the chance to attack the leaders tomorrow.
Sunday's Bets
Christiaan is the only player in the top 5 with a European Tour win and that experience could prove vital in helping him get over the line tomorrow. His driving has improved every day this week and he's been putting nicely too. He's only dropped two shots this week and that could prove crucial in seeing him move up the leaderboard given others are liable to drop shots. Christiaan has a 3⭐ Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating but would have had four stars were it not for his mistake at the Dubai Desert Classic in January. However, he's far more experienced now and against a group of players who will undoubtedly be nervous, he's a sound bet at 7/2.
27 November 2020 7:45pm
-13 Meronk
-10 Bland
-10 Hansen
-8 Roussel
-8 Schaper
-7 Three players tied
Unbelievably, the second round didn't get finished today due to one player not getting round before darkness descended, round of applause Garrick Porteous!
Challenge Tour graduate Adrian Meronk (3/1) has the halfway lead by three strokes after backing up Thursday's 65 with another 66. The leaderboard now has quite a spread out feel to it and as a result each way terms aren't favourable.
It would be a terrific performance for Meronk to win wire to wire from here. He was a winner on the Challenge Tour last year which will give him confidence for the weekend. However, he has no experience leading at this level after 36 or 54 holes and the youngster is bound to be feeling nervous about making history as the first Polish winner on tour.
In hot pursuit is last weeks winner JB Hansen who carded the round of the day (64). The Dane is playing the golf of his career at present and for our money may still be the man to beat. This is reflected in the prices and best price 4/1 doesn't offer massive value either.
Richard Bland can't be trusted to close based on 18 years of evidence and Schaper and Roussel did well to hang in there today. We can expect the dangermen at -7 to make a move but once again they are short enough.
With no value in the outright, we have spotted a play in a nationality market.
-13 Meronk
-10 Bland
-10 Hansen
-8 Roussel
-8 Schaper
-7 Three players tied
Unbelievably, the second round didn't get finished today due to one player not getting round before darkness descended, round of applause Garrick Porteous!
Challenge Tour graduate Adrian Meronk (3/1) has the halfway lead by three strokes after backing up Thursday's 65 with another 66. The leaderboard now has quite a spread out feel to it and as a result each way terms aren't favourable.
It would be a terrific performance for Meronk to win wire to wire from here. He was a winner on the Challenge Tour last year which will give him confidence for the weekend. However, he has no experience leading at this level after 36 or 54 holes and the youngster is bound to be feeling nervous about making history as the first Polish winner on tour.
In hot pursuit is last weeks winner JB Hansen who carded the round of the day (64). The Dane is playing the golf of his career at present and for our money may still be the man to beat. This is reflected in the prices and best price 4/1 doesn't offer massive value either.
Richard Bland can't be trusted to close based on 18 years of evidence and Schaper and Roussel did well to hang in there today. We can expect the dangermen at -7 to make a move but once again they are short enough.
With no value in the outright, we have spotted a play in a nationality market.
Saturday's Bets
Richard Bland is playing consistent golf at the moment but we have our doubts about him when he is near the top of a leaderboard. Richard has not won since 2001 on the Challenge Tour and hasn't had a European Tour top 5 for several years. Wilson is four shots back with the 3rd nearest runner seven shots behind Bland. It will take something special from the chasing Englishmen at -2 and -3 to be competitive in this market. Odds of 8/1 on Wilson in a potential two horse race look extremely attractive. Wilson has been gradually improving each week recently and is overpriced to catch Bland here.
26 November 2020 7:45pm
-7 Meronk
-7 Roussel
-6 Jamieson
-5 Bland
-4 Three players tied
The morning wave enjoyed the better of the conditions on day 1, with the wind picking up in the afternoon to firm the course up. Outsiders Adrian Meronk and Robin Roussel made the most of it and share the lead, but the outstanding round of the day came from Scott Jamieson who battled against the harder conditions to finish one off the lead. He is now bookmakers favourite (10/1), slightly ahead of Christian Bezuidenhout (11/1) who sits on -3.
Pre-tournament 50/1 shot Jamieson loves playing in South Africa, with three top 5's at Leopard Creek, a 2nd at Nedbank and a win at the Nelson Mandela Championship back in 2012. That win is his only European Tour success to date and was left off the six to watch for his poor conversion rate at relatively short odds. With an early start tomorrow he is quite rightly shortest in the market, however, it would still be a surprise were he to take the title on Sunday.
Favourites Robert McIntyre and Brandon Stone have got off to slow starts, and the former seemed rather irritable on the TV coverage. Our preview highlighted that catch up is extremely possible around here, probably due to the nature of the course and in particular the par 5's. There were quite a few dropped shots on the 13th and 18th.
If you look back at the 2018 event, which was the first since the course changes, only one player (David Drysdale) broke 70 in the opening round who ended up finishing in the top eight. No player in the field broke 70 all four days that year so a good round in the 60's can catapult you up the leaderboard. With this in mind we have identified morning starters tomorrow who can gradually work their way into contention.
-7 Meronk
-7 Roussel
-6 Jamieson
-5 Bland
-4 Three players tied
The morning wave enjoyed the better of the conditions on day 1, with the wind picking up in the afternoon to firm the course up. Outsiders Adrian Meronk and Robin Roussel made the most of it and share the lead, but the outstanding round of the day came from Scott Jamieson who battled against the harder conditions to finish one off the lead. He is now bookmakers favourite (10/1), slightly ahead of Christian Bezuidenhout (11/1) who sits on -3.
Pre-tournament 50/1 shot Jamieson loves playing in South Africa, with three top 5's at Leopard Creek, a 2nd at Nedbank and a win at the Nelson Mandela Championship back in 2012. That win is his only European Tour success to date and was left off the six to watch for his poor conversion rate at relatively short odds. With an early start tomorrow he is quite rightly shortest in the market, however, it would still be a surprise were he to take the title on Sunday.
Favourites Robert McIntyre and Brandon Stone have got off to slow starts, and the former seemed rather irritable on the TV coverage. Our preview highlighted that catch up is extremely possible around here, probably due to the nature of the course and in particular the par 5's. There were quite a few dropped shots on the 13th and 18th.
If you look back at the 2018 event, which was the first since the course changes, only one player (David Drysdale) broke 70 in the opening round who ended up finishing in the top eight. No player in the field broke 70 all four days that year so a good round in the 60's can catapult you up the leaderboard. With this in mind we have identified morning starters tomorrow who can gradually work their way into contention.
Friday's Bets
The 2019 Portugal Masters champion sits at -3 with a chance to make a move with the easier conditions tomorrow. Steven stood out whilst looking at the stats, ranking 8th for SG: Off the tee, 9th for SG: Approach and 4th Scrambling. With a lack of proven winners at this level at the top of the leaderboard, Steven's relatively recent winning experience may prove crucial over the weekend.
We have selected another player who possesses a win in Portugal. The South African youngster finds himself 7 shots back, hence the price drift, but for the reasons mentioned above, he has plenty of time to get back into this. He ranked 7th for greens in regulation yesterday but more importantly, ranked 18th SG: Putting, which was his downfall last week at the Joburg Open.
Nacho has been selected at a value price and is simply too big. Twice a runner up on the European Tour, maybe he can take some inspiration from fellow Spaniard Larrazabal's win here last year. It's interesting to note that one of the 2nd place finishes was at the Trophy Hassan II, where previous Leopard Creek winner David Lipsky also won. Extremely consistent stats after day 1 ranking in the top 30 for SG: tee to green, scrambling and SG: Putting. He can improve on his 20th place finish in his last start in Cyprus.
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