European Tour In-Play Tips
Omega Dubai Desert Classic In-Play Blog
Welcome to the European Tour In-Play Betting Blog. In-play betting advice and tips will be given on this page but to read our event preview click here.
30 January, 6pm
-15 Paul Casey
-14 Robert MacIntyre
-13 Brandon Stone
-10 Sergio Garcia
-10 Laurie Canter
-9 Kalle Samooja
-8 Three Players tied
Robert MacIntyre was the only one of the previous leading five who has managed to stay within touching distance. Paul Casey is now sole leader after a chip-in birdie at 17 followed by a super eagle on 18. Our 30/1 halfway recommendation Brandon Stone is the only other realistic winner, barring an exceptional round from somebody in the pack.
Paul was exceptional today and we have him down as 4 stars for pressure performance when in contention. He appears extremely relaxed and has spoken of how well his off season went. He was Collin Morikawa's closest challenger for the PGA Championship last year and in late 2019, fired a 66 to win the Porsche Open by 1 shot. The hope for MacIntyre and Stone is that he won't be able to back up a low round with another like so often happens, but it's more likely they will have to win it rather than he will lose it.
Funnily enough, it was Robert MacIntyre who Casey beat by 1 shot for the Porsche Open victory and that will be fresh in the Scotsman's mind tomorrow as he seeks revenge. Robert has since bagged a European Tour title in Cyprus, but it must be noted it was in a 'Sunday Shootout' format. He was 1 shot back heading into the final round of the DP World Tour Championship in December and shot 77 to slip to 23rd. It was a worrying performance and enough for us to favour Casey here.
Our hope is that Stone comes through with the pressure slightly off. Frustratingly, he has saved his worst drive of the day for the 18th in each of the last two rounds and played them in a combined one over. He really is driving the ball superbly otherwise and if he can continue to do that will set up plenty of chances. If you still need some interest for tomorrow, he is worth a few quid at 7/1.
Canter and Garcia can't be ruled out yet, but given we think Casey won't fold tomorrow, they really will have to do something special. The forecast is for similar conditions and we should see plenty of birdies. No more bets here as we hope Stone comes through for us.
-15 Paul Casey
-14 Robert MacIntyre
-13 Brandon Stone
-10 Sergio Garcia
-10 Laurie Canter
-9 Kalle Samooja
-8 Three Players tied
Robert MacIntyre was the only one of the previous leading five who has managed to stay within touching distance. Paul Casey is now sole leader after a chip-in birdie at 17 followed by a super eagle on 18. Our 30/1 halfway recommendation Brandon Stone is the only other realistic winner, barring an exceptional round from somebody in the pack.
Paul was exceptional today and we have him down as 4 stars for pressure performance when in contention. He appears extremely relaxed and has spoken of how well his off season went. He was Collin Morikawa's closest challenger for the PGA Championship last year and in late 2019, fired a 66 to win the Porsche Open by 1 shot. The hope for MacIntyre and Stone is that he won't be able to back up a low round with another like so often happens, but it's more likely they will have to win it rather than he will lose it.
Funnily enough, it was Robert MacIntyre who Casey beat by 1 shot for the Porsche Open victory and that will be fresh in the Scotsman's mind tomorrow as he seeks revenge. Robert has since bagged a European Tour title in Cyprus, but it must be noted it was in a 'Sunday Shootout' format. He was 1 shot back heading into the final round of the DP World Tour Championship in December and shot 77 to slip to 23rd. It was a worrying performance and enough for us to favour Casey here.
Our hope is that Stone comes through with the pressure slightly off. Frustratingly, he has saved his worst drive of the day for the 18th in each of the last two rounds and played them in a combined one over. He really is driving the ball superbly otherwise and if he can continue to do that will set up plenty of chances. If you still need some interest for tomorrow, he is worth a few quid at 7/1.
Canter and Garcia can't be ruled out yet, but given we think Casey won't fold tomorrow, they really will have to do something special. The forecast is for similar conditions and we should see plenty of birdies. No more bets here as we hope Stone comes through for us.
29 January, 6pm
-10 Thomas Detry
-9 Robert Macintyre
-8 Justin Harding
-8 Kalle Samooja
-8 Tommy Fleetwood
-7 Six Players tied
We hoped 125/1 Kurt Kitayama was going to kick on but it wasn't to be as he missed putt after putt on his back nine. Although disappointing, he remains in contention, three shots off the lead. 18 hole leader Richard Sterne ended up going backwards and it was Robert Macintyre who took the morning lead with a bogey free 68.
In the afternoon wave Thomas Detry took the lead with another 67 and he has now gone 36 holes without dropping a shot. Being in the lead might not be the best place for the young Belgian as his troubles getting over the line are now well documented. We have a feeling it will go one or two ways for him - either he feels the pressure of leading so early, or he spreadeagles the field and wins by a distance - just as he did for his only professional win in 2016 on the Challenge Tour, where he won by 12 shots!
It is more likely to be the former, so we now look at the chasing pack. Current Bookmaker's favourite Tommy Fleetwood sits at 8 under par after an eagle at the last, but he's short enough given his course form here. Next in line after Detry and Macintyre is 9/1 Paul Casey who is one back at 7 under par. He commented after his round how difficult he found putting and that doesn't inspire us with confidence for the weekend.
Unbelievably, next in the betting at 16/1 is Tyrrell Hatton who fired a 64 to get back to four under. The round included 3 hole outs from off the green and he also missed a couple of makeable birdie putts coming in. We were already on Tyrrell before the start so are happy to cheer him on, but he will have to keep the foot down all weekend.
There are plenty of other dangers between six and eight under par, and we have selected two players we believe have the pedigrees to go on to win this.
-10 Thomas Detry
-9 Robert Macintyre
-8 Justin Harding
-8 Kalle Samooja
-8 Tommy Fleetwood
-7 Six Players tied
We hoped 125/1 Kurt Kitayama was going to kick on but it wasn't to be as he missed putt after putt on his back nine. Although disappointing, he remains in contention, three shots off the lead. 18 hole leader Richard Sterne ended up going backwards and it was Robert Macintyre who took the morning lead with a bogey free 68.
In the afternoon wave Thomas Detry took the lead with another 67 and he has now gone 36 holes without dropping a shot. Being in the lead might not be the best place for the young Belgian as his troubles getting over the line are now well documented. We have a feeling it will go one or two ways for him - either he feels the pressure of leading so early, or he spreadeagles the field and wins by a distance - just as he did for his only professional win in 2016 on the Challenge Tour, where he won by 12 shots!
It is more likely to be the former, so we now look at the chasing pack. Current Bookmaker's favourite Tommy Fleetwood sits at 8 under par after an eagle at the last, but he's short enough given his course form here. Next in line after Detry and Macintyre is 9/1 Paul Casey who is one back at 7 under par. He commented after his round how difficult he found putting and that doesn't inspire us with confidence for the weekend.
Unbelievably, next in the betting at 16/1 is Tyrrell Hatton who fired a 64 to get back to four under. The round included 3 hole outs from off the green and he also missed a couple of makeable birdie putts coming in. We were already on Tyrrell before the start so are happy to cheer him on, but he will have to keep the foot down all weekend.
There are plenty of other dangers between six and eight under par, and we have selected two players we believe have the pedigrees to go on to win this.
Friday's Bets
Lee is 3 off the lead and without a doubt one of the most reliable players on the leaderboard. The 2020 Abu Dhabi champion showed exactly what he's made of in December to clinch the Race to Dubai. The fact he is more than twice the price of Paul Casey on the same score is not right to us and we expect him to kick on over the weekend. He finished 7th here two years ago playing the weekend in 67-69, and a similar performance would ask a question here. Nothing technical to this selection; in our opinion his price should be shorter!
Brandon made a great move from 2 under this afternoon and actually looked like he could have been joint leader at one point. At 8 under he failed to get up and down greenside on 17, then made a mess of the 18th to bogey the par 5. We are hoping to take advantage of that error with a nice juicy price of 30/1 for an already Rolex Series winner in Scotland. Aside from the 18th, he drove the ball beautifully and 67 was the worst possible score he could have shot. If he can put the bad finish aside he can get himself into a great position for Sunday. Let's remember, he would have won the Oman Open last year if it wasn't for Sami Valimaki holing a lengthy putt on the last to force a playoff.
28 January, 7pm
-8 Sterne
-7 Kitayama
-6 Garcia
-6 Harding
-4 Four players tied.
Golf Betting Club subscribers are off to a flyer in Dubai with pre-event 125/1 tip Kurt Kitayama in sole 2nd place after an opening 65. Kurt could have been in the lead but missed makeable birdie putts on his last two holes. He ranked 2nd tee to green and 1st around the greens so all aspects of his game look in good shape.
He is now best priced 14/1 at the bookmakers and has a nice early tee time where he will hopefully set a tough target for the afternoon chasers. Richard Sterne also goes off in the morning but may struggle to back up a round which was mainly due a hot putter.
A couple of other obvious dangers go out in the morning - Robert McIntyre, who sits in 5th place three off the lead, and Martin Kaymer, who is four shots back after birdieing his last four holes. Sergio Garcia and Justin Harding will go off in the afternoon after taking the clubhouse lead earlier today. Garcia is bookies' favourite currently at 5/1 and rightfully so after a well controlled round. We were tempted to put up Harding at 33/1 as he is 2nd tee to green, but we will hold off for now as he sometimes flatters to deceive after a strong start.
The biggest flop of the day was pre-tournament favourite Tyrrell Hatton, who must have celebrated in style on Sunday night - and possibly right through to Thursday! The Abu Dhabi Champion shot 4 over today and has his work cut out to make the cut, but as Tommy Fleetwood showed last week, never say never in golf!
The morning starters got the best of the draw as the wind and firmness of the course increased in the afternoon. We mentioned in the preview this is not an ideal course to play catch up on, so we have selected two value plays in the top 20 who can make the most of the more favourable morning conditions.
-8 Sterne
-7 Kitayama
-6 Garcia
-6 Harding
-4 Four players tied.
Golf Betting Club subscribers are off to a flyer in Dubai with pre-event 125/1 tip Kurt Kitayama in sole 2nd place after an opening 65. Kurt could have been in the lead but missed makeable birdie putts on his last two holes. He ranked 2nd tee to green and 1st around the greens so all aspects of his game look in good shape.
He is now best priced 14/1 at the bookmakers and has a nice early tee time where he will hopefully set a tough target for the afternoon chasers. Richard Sterne also goes off in the morning but may struggle to back up a round which was mainly due a hot putter.
A couple of other obvious dangers go out in the morning - Robert McIntyre, who sits in 5th place three off the lead, and Martin Kaymer, who is four shots back after birdieing his last four holes. Sergio Garcia and Justin Harding will go off in the afternoon after taking the clubhouse lead earlier today. Garcia is bookies' favourite currently at 5/1 and rightfully so after a well controlled round. We were tempted to put up Harding at 33/1 as he is 2nd tee to green, but we will hold off for now as he sometimes flatters to deceive after a strong start.
The biggest flop of the day was pre-tournament favourite Tyrrell Hatton, who must have celebrated in style on Sunday night - and possibly right through to Thursday! The Abu Dhabi Champion shot 4 over today and has his work cut out to make the cut, but as Tommy Fleetwood showed last week, never say never in golf!
The morning starters got the best of the draw as the wind and firmness of the course increased in the afternoon. We mentioned in the preview this is not an ideal course to play catch up on, so we have selected two value plays in the top 20 who can make the most of the more favourable morning conditions.
Friday's Bets
Wade continued his good work from Abu Dhabi (finished 12th) with a bogey-free round of -4 in the tougher conditions. He is one to keep an eye on the week after a good result the previous week - he won the Hong Kong Open in 2019 after a 3rd at the Australian Open on his previous start. He is usually a fairway and greens machine (ranked in the top 10 in both categories last season) and showed his strong iron play today, ranking 3rd for SG: Approach. He isn't the longest of hitters but everything else is in good working order and he has the experience to contend around here. He turned 40 recently which is also a nice added bonus in terms of motivation.
Jeff is one shot further back at -3 and his price is quite simply too big to turn down. He has yet to win on tour but has been knocking on the door in recent years with 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishes. The 3rd came in Qatar where he also has a 12th place, so we know he likes this part of the world. He was a respectable 37th here on his course debut last year. Small stakes advised but let's take a punt that Jeff starts fast tomorrow morning.
|
|
|
