PGA Tour In-Play Tips
The American Express
24 January 14.30
-15 Homa
-15 S W Kim
-15 Finau
-14 Werenski
-13 Knox
-13 Harman
-13 Grillo
It's all set up for a thrilling final round as twelve players are within three shots of the lead. The bunched nature of the leaderboard gives us much to ponder in this blog. Will Tony Finau win again? Will our 200/1 pre-event selection, Richy Werenski, prevail? Will we see the winner come from a few shots back?
If Tony Finau is ever to win again it must surely be here. It looked like the Sunday Finau had shown up yesterday when he put his tee shot at the short 13th in the water and made double. However, three bounce back birdies were impressive and took him back into a share of the lead. If he displays that level of resolve he'll be hard to beat.
Tony also has extremely positive memories of the Stadium Course. He won $21,000 here in 2011 when playing an event on the National Pro Golf Tour (his biggest ever win at the time). He also qualified from Web.com (now Korn Ferry) Q School here in 2013, a moment he describes as "life changing". Those kind of positive memories could go a long way to seeing him win again today. But although we may regret it, 11/4 is just too short for us to put him up as a bet given his past troubles. It'll make a great story if he does win though.
Let's take a moment to consider the chances of our man, Richy Werenski. Only one player in the top 12 has won anywhere in the past 18 months and that's Richy. He won the Barracuda Championship last August and hopefully that will be fresh in his mind. He's only made one bogey all week, and even that came from a clumsy chip when greenside at the par 3 thirteenth. As you'd expect from so few bogeys he ranks 8th for both SG: Approach and SG: Off the Tee. There's every reason to like his chances and if we weren't already on at 200/1 we'd very likely be putting him up as a bet in-play.
Conditions for the final round are forecast to be sunny with the wind picking up as the afternoon goes on. A maximum of 14mph is forecast around 4pm and the leaders may just get caught in the strongest wind. The closing holes at the Stadium course are treacherous at the best of times, but play even harder with the wind kicking up.
With question marks over the leaders, it may pay to back a couple of players further down the leaderboard. We saw Abraham Ancer make a strong final round charge last year to almost wrestle the title from Andrew Landry, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see something similar. A debutant could very well win.
We've been knocking on the door the past two weeks on the PGA Tour, let's hope it's third time lucky today!
-15 Homa
-15 S W Kim
-15 Finau
-14 Werenski
-13 Knox
-13 Harman
-13 Grillo
It's all set up for a thrilling final round as twelve players are within three shots of the lead. The bunched nature of the leaderboard gives us much to ponder in this blog. Will Tony Finau win again? Will our 200/1 pre-event selection, Richy Werenski, prevail? Will we see the winner come from a few shots back?
If Tony Finau is ever to win again it must surely be here. It looked like the Sunday Finau had shown up yesterday when he put his tee shot at the short 13th in the water and made double. However, three bounce back birdies were impressive and took him back into a share of the lead. If he displays that level of resolve he'll be hard to beat.
Tony also has extremely positive memories of the Stadium Course. He won $21,000 here in 2011 when playing an event on the National Pro Golf Tour (his biggest ever win at the time). He also qualified from Web.com (now Korn Ferry) Q School here in 2013, a moment he describes as "life changing". Those kind of positive memories could go a long way to seeing him win again today. But although we may regret it, 11/4 is just too short for us to put him up as a bet given his past troubles. It'll make a great story if he does win though.
Let's take a moment to consider the chances of our man, Richy Werenski. Only one player in the top 12 has won anywhere in the past 18 months and that's Richy. He won the Barracuda Championship last August and hopefully that will be fresh in his mind. He's only made one bogey all week, and even that came from a clumsy chip when greenside at the par 3 thirteenth. As you'd expect from so few bogeys he ranks 8th for both SG: Approach and SG: Off the Tee. There's every reason to like his chances and if we weren't already on at 200/1 we'd very likely be putting him up as a bet in-play.
Conditions for the final round are forecast to be sunny with the wind picking up as the afternoon goes on. A maximum of 14mph is forecast around 4pm and the leaders may just get caught in the strongest wind. The closing holes at the Stadium course are treacherous at the best of times, but play even harder with the wind kicking up.
With question marks over the leaders, it may pay to back a couple of players further down the leaderboard. We saw Abraham Ancer make a strong final round charge last year to almost wrestle the title from Andrew Landry, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see something similar. A debutant could very well win.
We've been knocking on the door the past two weeks on the PGA Tour, let's hope it's third time lucky today!
Sunday's Bets
Russell may well struggle today but we want a bit of cover on him given his pedigree and past performances in contention. The bet is win only to reflect that position - a few missed putts early on and he could fall away. However, if he can make a few we'll see his confidence grow. The price reflects his recent putting problems and poor form and it's a price we're happy to take. He's striking the ball nicely (9th SG: Tee to green) and the stats suggest he's putting very well, even if he is still missing the odd short one. Let's not forget it wasn't too long ago he was winning a WGC title.
Doug's long game has been exceptional, ranking 5th for SG: Tee To green. He's three off the pace but merits a bit of support given his future potential. He's a former world amateur No 1 and a comfortable wind player should it kick up more than expected. He'll need to find a hotter putter but we think he's worth chancing with four each way places on offer and a generous price.
Luke is four back but there are a few interesting reasons to think he's worth a small bet. He ranks 1st SG: Off The Tee and 7th SG: Approach for the two rounds the players have played at the Stadium Course. He won on the Korn Ferry Tour last year on his first start after golf was paused due to Coronavirus. That win came at TPC Sawgrass, a Pete Dye design. The Stadium course is also a Dye design so it's a test that suits him. He's a notoriously bad putter but it's worth chancing he has a hot day on the green at these odds.
23 January 11.30
-11 Im
-10 S W Kim
-10 Hagy
-10 Ancer
-10 Finau
-10 N Taylor
We're at the halfway stage at The American Express with Sungjae Im holding a one shot lead over a group of five including Tony Finau and Abraham Ancer. Seventeen players sit within 3 of the lead so it is very much all to play for.
As expected, the scoring has evened up now that players have played both courses, and they will play the final 36 holes at the tougher Stadium Course. Sungjae Im will be in confident mood after shooting 65 there yesterday, as will Nick Taylor who shot 66. Abraham Ancer shot 63 on the final day here last year so will fancy his chances also.
Our profile of Sunjae shows a five star pressure performance rating so he may take some beating from here and he is quite rightly 7/2 favourite. Tony Finau is next in the betting and doesn't rate much value to us at 11/2 given his poor win rate.
A look back at the last 5 editions of this tournament shows that only Adam Long in 2018 was more than one shot behind after 36 holes. All of the other four winners were in the top 3 at halfway and within one. It is worth noting that the tournament used to be played over 3 courses though, and the format has changed this year.
-11 Im
-10 S W Kim
-10 Hagy
-10 Ancer
-10 Finau
-10 N Taylor
We're at the halfway stage at The American Express with Sungjae Im holding a one shot lead over a group of five including Tony Finau and Abraham Ancer. Seventeen players sit within 3 of the lead so it is very much all to play for.
As expected, the scoring has evened up now that players have played both courses, and they will play the final 36 holes at the tougher Stadium Course. Sungjae Im will be in confident mood after shooting 65 there yesterday, as will Nick Taylor who shot 66. Abraham Ancer shot 63 on the final day here last year so will fancy his chances also.
Our profile of Sunjae shows a five star pressure performance rating so he may take some beating from here and he is quite rightly 7/2 favourite. Tony Finau is next in the betting and doesn't rate much value to us at 11/2 given his poor win rate.
A look back at the last 5 editions of this tournament shows that only Adam Long in 2018 was more than one shot behind after 36 holes. All of the other four winners were in the top 3 at halfway and within one. It is worth noting that the tournament used to be played over 3 courses though, and the format has changed this year.
Saturday's Bets
Paul matched Im's 65 at the Stadium course yesterday, but still sits 4 shots off the lead after a poor first round on the Nicklaus course. He was asked after his round why he played worse on the easier course and responded " I don't know if it's easier, but one is Nicklaus and one is Dye. And I don't know, I quite like this one." He also noted that his game feels really sharp after lots of practice in January. "I'm optimistic, I'm feeling good about the game. Yeah, I'm raring to go." Paul has the class to make up 4 shots on a course he thrives on. If you can't get the 40/1 at Spreadex, 33/1 is still a reasonable price. Currently trading at 48 on Betfair Exchange also, which is a great win only price.
22 January 09.00
-8 Hagy
-7 An
-6 S W Kim
-6 Laird
-6 Homa
As expected, the top of the leaderboard after round one is dominated by players who played the easier Nicklaus course. Only Si Woo Kim was able to get to -6 on the Stadium course and he'll be expecting to make further progress up the leaderboard today. Of the 38 players who are -4 or better, only 14 played the Stadium course. The players will switch courses for round two and we'll start to see a clearer picture after 36 holes.
As expected, Kim is 12/1 favourite with the bookies given his excellent first round. Kim hasn't won since the 2017 Players Championship but has been steadily working his way back to form the past few months. Given the bunched nature of the leaderboard and Kim's unpredictable game, we're happy to take him on. Let's not forget he opened with a round of 64 at the Sony Open last week and got it to -10 midway through his second round before throwing in four bogeys and ultimately finishing the tournament in 25th.
In terms of betting strategy, it's obviously advantageous to look for players who will play the Nicklaus course on Friday. Preference is for players with early tee times as the wind will pick up slightly in the afternoon, as it did for round one.
-8 Hagy
-7 An
-6 S W Kim
-6 Laird
-6 Homa
As expected, the top of the leaderboard after round one is dominated by players who played the easier Nicklaus course. Only Si Woo Kim was able to get to -6 on the Stadium course and he'll be expecting to make further progress up the leaderboard today. Of the 38 players who are -4 or better, only 14 played the Stadium course. The players will switch courses for round two and we'll start to see a clearer picture after 36 holes.
As expected, Kim is 12/1 favourite with the bookies given his excellent first round. Kim hasn't won since the 2017 Players Championship but has been steadily working his way back to form the past few months. Given the bunched nature of the leaderboard and Kim's unpredictable game, we're happy to take him on. Let's not forget he opened with a round of 64 at the Sony Open last week and got it to -10 midway through his second round before throwing in four bogeys and ultimately finishing the tournament in 25th.
In terms of betting strategy, it's obviously advantageous to look for players who will play the Nicklaus course on Friday. Preference is for players with early tee times as the wind will pick up slightly in the afternoon, as it did for round one.
Friday's Bets
Joel was on our shortlist pre-event as our player profiles identify him as a player who can go well when fresh. A bogey free 69 on the harder Stadium course yesterday was a solid effort. He ranked 2nd SG: Off the tee which should see him set up further birdie opportunities today. He'll need to improve his iron play but given it was his first competitive round since Mayakoba last year, we're prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Austin's long game was extremely solid yesterday as he ranked 14th SG: Off the tee and 10th SG: Approach. He sits nicely poised at -4 and is playing the easier Nicklaus course today. We know Austin can compete here as he had a 14th place finish here in 2018 and he was right in the mix until a Sunday 75. He lost out in a Playoff at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open towards the end of last year and did well on the Sunday so we have less concern about him if he were to get into contention. If you can't get the 100/1 at Skybet, we still like the 80/1+ that is available elsewhere.
Grayson has an excellent record at this event, posting a couple of top 20 finishes in previous years. He played really nicely yesterday on the Stadium course, shooting a 3 under 69. He ranked 16th SG: Off the tee and 4th SG: Approach. If he brings that type of form to the Nicklaus course today he'll have plenty of looks at birdies. He also has an early tee time, going off in the 2nd group out. The odds reflect Grayson's inconsistencies as a player but he's a confident player who's definitely capable of snatching a win if the opportunity arises.
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