Friday's Bets
Abu Dhabi Championship 2021 Preview
Starts: 21 January 2021
Course: Abu Dhabi Golf Club, Abu Dhabi, UAE
Par: 72 (36-36)
Length: 7,583 yards
Defending Champion: Lee Westwood
Course Info
Course Designer - Peter Harradine
Fairways: Narrow, Flat, Bunkers in key landing spots.
Rough: Thick
Greens: Tifdwarf Bermuda. High quality, meaning putts are holeable.
Water Hazards: 1,3,4,6,7,9,12,14,16,17,18.
Par 5's: 2nd, 8th, 10th, 18th
Hosted Since: 2005
Premium on: Accuracy off the tee and strong iron play.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
This is the first event of the 2021 European Tour season. You may see a lot of rust from players, Justin Thomas is the only player who has teed up in 2021 so far.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather Forecast
Warm and sunny all four days with peaks of 25 degrees. Wind picks up significantly in the afternoon on Thursday which favours the morning starters.
Thurs - Sunny and strong breeze. Wind peaks at 18mph late afternoon.
Fri - Sunny and strong breeze. Wind peaks at 18mph early afternoon.
Sat - Sunny and gentle breeze. Wind peaks at 14mph late afternoon.
Sun - Sunny and moderate breeze. Wind peaks at 12mph early afternoon.
Trends
Winning score: Since 2015, the winning score has ranged from -16 to -22. We expect a similar outcome this week with high winds on Thursday and Friday.
Price of Winner: Varied from 8/1 to 150/1 in last 10 years. 7 of the last 9 winners were 60/1 or bigger. Westwood went off at 90/1.
Correlating Courses - None, although previous recent winners here have all been strong links players, perhaps due to the afternoon winds that tend to arrive. Westwood, Lowry and Fleetwood all have decent records at wind exposed tracks.
Course form: Between 2012 and 2017, all six winners hadn't recorded a previous top 10 at the Abu Dhabi GC. Since then though, all three winners had a previous top 5, and Tommy Fleetwood retained his title in 2018. Desert form is also preferred.
Recent form: The last 9 winners had a top 10 in their previous 4 starts. It is important to have some sort of momentum from the end of season events.
Nationality: The winner has been from UK or Ireland 6 of the last 9 years.
Stats Analysis
Strokes Gained stats are since 2019. There doesn't appear to be one key stat needed to get the job done. Leaving Westwood aside last year, iron play looks key to success.
Driving Distance: In 2020, three of the top four finished outside 50th for distance. Only Victor Perez finished 5th. You don't need to bomb it round here to contend.
SG: Off The Tee: In 2020, Westwood and Perez were in the top 10 for this category but Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick were ranked 23rd and 31st. Winner in 2019 Lowry ranked 98th that year. Nonetheless, we generally want a strong driver around here.
SG: Approach: In 2020, winner Westwood only ranked 41st. Fitzpatrick and Fleetwood were both top 10 and Perez was 16th. In 2019, the top 2 Lowry and Sterne both ranked top 10. Strong iron play is usually the name of the game.
SG: Around the greens: In 2020, none of the top four ranked better than 27th. In 2019, Lowry was 5th, although Sterne was 29th. Short game is not a key skill we're looking for.
SG: Putting: In 2020, Westwood ranked 3rd but Fleetwood was 52nd. In 2019, Lowry and Sterne were both top 20. It's not an essential stat to contend, but as always it helps.
In-play
Tough Holes: Par 4's 6th and 14th were the two toughest last year, both playing over 4.1 on average.
Birdie Holes: The four par 5s (2nd, 8th, 10th and 18th) played the easiest holes last year and need to be taken advantage of, along with the par 4 13th.
Fast or Slow Start: Lowry won wire-to-wire in 2019. In 2020 though, none of the top 5 were within 4 shots of the lead after round 1! You don't have to fly out the blocks here to win.
Closing stretch: 16th and 17th are both long tough par 4's, and the 562 yard par 5 18th played the easiest in 2020.
Course Notes 2021
Fall Momentum - The top 3 all had a top 10 in their last two starts of 2020.
Hard work over winter - Notable that Scrivener, McIlroy and Langasque (who did well the first few days) all spoke of the effort they'd put in pre-tournament being more than usual and how sharp they felt.
Wind - Wind wasn't especially strong but several players spoke of blustery conditions at times, more so than normal.
Player Notes 2021
Q. Your caddie was telling me he had never seen you work this hard; Christmas Day was the only day you had off and you've been working with Dave Alred. Tell us about that.
JASON SCRIVENER: Yeah, he's been a game changer for me. Really taught me -- we sat down probably two months before Christmas at the end of my season last year, and he's really helped me a lot and pushed me that bit extra to work harder.
RORY McILROY: It's so blustery and it's different type of golf than we're used to playing here in Abu Dhabi where there's usually not much wind. You feel like you have a chance on every hole. There's like a little more scrambling involved and longer putts. (3rd round)
TYRRELL HATTON: It was a difficult day. The conditions were really tough for the whole day. (3rd round)
*As ever, follow our daily in-play updates and tips on our Abu Dhabi Championship in-play page*
Course: Abu Dhabi Golf Club, Abu Dhabi, UAE
Par: 72 (36-36)
Length: 7,583 yards
Defending Champion: Lee Westwood
Course Info
Course Designer - Peter Harradine
Fairways: Narrow, Flat, Bunkers in key landing spots.
Rough: Thick
Greens: Tifdwarf Bermuda. High quality, meaning putts are holeable.
Water Hazards: 1,3,4,6,7,9,12,14,16,17,18.
Par 5's: 2nd, 8th, 10th, 18th
Hosted Since: 2005
Premium on: Accuracy off the tee and strong iron play.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
This is the first event of the 2021 European Tour season. You may see a lot of rust from players, Justin Thomas is the only player who has teed up in 2021 so far.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather Forecast
Warm and sunny all four days with peaks of 25 degrees. Wind picks up significantly in the afternoon on Thursday which favours the morning starters.
Thurs - Sunny and strong breeze. Wind peaks at 18mph late afternoon.
Fri - Sunny and strong breeze. Wind peaks at 18mph early afternoon.
Sat - Sunny and gentle breeze. Wind peaks at 14mph late afternoon.
Sun - Sunny and moderate breeze. Wind peaks at 12mph early afternoon.
Trends
Winning score: Since 2015, the winning score has ranged from -16 to -22. We expect a similar outcome this week with high winds on Thursday and Friday.
Price of Winner: Varied from 8/1 to 150/1 in last 10 years. 7 of the last 9 winners were 60/1 or bigger. Westwood went off at 90/1.
Correlating Courses - None, although previous recent winners here have all been strong links players, perhaps due to the afternoon winds that tend to arrive. Westwood, Lowry and Fleetwood all have decent records at wind exposed tracks.
Course form: Between 2012 and 2017, all six winners hadn't recorded a previous top 10 at the Abu Dhabi GC. Since then though, all three winners had a previous top 5, and Tommy Fleetwood retained his title in 2018. Desert form is also preferred.
Recent form: The last 9 winners had a top 10 in their previous 4 starts. It is important to have some sort of momentum from the end of season events.
Nationality: The winner has been from UK or Ireland 6 of the last 9 years.
Stats Analysis
Strokes Gained stats are since 2019. There doesn't appear to be one key stat needed to get the job done. Leaving Westwood aside last year, iron play looks key to success.
Driving Distance: In 2020, three of the top four finished outside 50th for distance. Only Victor Perez finished 5th. You don't need to bomb it round here to contend.
SG: Off The Tee: In 2020, Westwood and Perez were in the top 10 for this category but Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick were ranked 23rd and 31st. Winner in 2019 Lowry ranked 98th that year. Nonetheless, we generally want a strong driver around here.
SG: Approach: In 2020, winner Westwood only ranked 41st. Fitzpatrick and Fleetwood were both top 10 and Perez was 16th. In 2019, the top 2 Lowry and Sterne both ranked top 10. Strong iron play is usually the name of the game.
SG: Around the greens: In 2020, none of the top four ranked better than 27th. In 2019, Lowry was 5th, although Sterne was 29th. Short game is not a key skill we're looking for.
SG: Putting: In 2020, Westwood ranked 3rd but Fleetwood was 52nd. In 2019, Lowry and Sterne were both top 20. It's not an essential stat to contend, but as always it helps.
In-play
Tough Holes: Par 4's 6th and 14th were the two toughest last year, both playing over 4.1 on average.
Birdie Holes: The four par 5s (2nd, 8th, 10th and 18th) played the easiest holes last year and need to be taken advantage of, along with the par 4 13th.
Fast or Slow Start: Lowry won wire-to-wire in 2019. In 2020 though, none of the top 5 were within 4 shots of the lead after round 1! You don't have to fly out the blocks here to win.
Closing stretch: 16th and 17th are both long tough par 4's, and the 562 yard par 5 18th played the easiest in 2020.
Course Notes 2021
Fall Momentum - The top 3 all had a top 10 in their last two starts of 2020.
Hard work over winter - Notable that Scrivener, McIlroy and Langasque (who did well the first few days) all spoke of the effort they'd put in pre-tournament being more than usual and how sharp they felt.
Wind - Wind wasn't especially strong but several players spoke of blustery conditions at times, more so than normal.
Player Notes 2021
Q. Your caddie was telling me he had never seen you work this hard; Christmas Day was the only day you had off and you've been working with Dave Alred. Tell us about that.
JASON SCRIVENER: Yeah, he's been a game changer for me. Really taught me -- we sat down probably two months before Christmas at the end of my season last year, and he's really helped me a lot and pushed me that bit extra to work harder.
RORY McILROY: It's so blustery and it's different type of golf than we're used to playing here in Abu Dhabi where there's usually not much wind. You feel like you have a chance on every hole. There's like a little more scrambling involved and longer putts. (3rd round)
TYRRELL HATTON: It was a difficult day. The conditions were really tough for the whole day. (3rd round)
*As ever, follow our daily in-play updates and tips on our Abu Dhabi Championship in-play page*
Abu Dhabi Championship - Pre-Event Tips
From 2021, the annual subscription for our tips will be £249 and we are delighted to be partnering with Premier Sports Plays (www.premiersportsplays.com) to bring you this service.
We will be in full charge of the Telegram group and Premier Sports Plays will handle the payments and administrative functions, allowing us to focus on the golf.
You can sign up by clicking the button below.
We will be in full charge of the Telegram group and Premier Sports Plays will handle the payments and administrative functions, allowing us to focus on the golf.
You can sign up by clicking the button below.
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