PGA Tour In-Play Tips
Waste Management Phoenix Open
,7 February 10.45
-18 Schauffele
-18 Spieth
-15 Scheffler
-15 K H Lee
-14 Thomas
-14 Oosthuizen
In a round that was reminiscent of his glory years, Jordan Spieth fired a sensational 61 to hold a share of the lead going into the final day. It may have started with routine pars at the first and last, but he certainly packed the usual Spieth drama into the other 16 holes. Remarkable recovery shots (from wild drives), consecutive 35ft birdie putts, a missed 4ft eagle putt and a chip in were only some of the highlights of a round that could easily have broken 60. It was a performance we haven't seen in a long while from Jordan and certainly begs the question: is he back?
We'd all like to see Spieth find his game again - he undoubtedly makes great viewing. However, there are a couple of factors which suggest we're unlikely to see him win. He's been out of contention for a long time now and was poor the last time he was in and around the lead (2020 Charles Schwab Challenge). His iron play yesterday was sensational, and although not impossible we are unlikely to see that again today. A solid round from Jordan would be nice to see but there has to be question marks over whether he can win for the first time in three and a half years.
One person who may benefit from the media attention on Jordan is Xander Schauffele. He will go under the radar a little and seek to notch his first win in two years by "hanging in there," a quote he gave yesterday. To do so he'll have to improve on his record when holding a 54 hole lead - he's 0-3 when leading or co-leading. He's been poor in contention in recent times and holds a Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating of 2 ⭐. With best odds of 19/20, we aren't in a rush to back him.
The chasing pack will be hoping for a similar outcome to that of when Spieth and Schauffele last played together. In the final group at the 2018 Open Championship, the pair shot 76 and 74 to let slip any chance of winning. Whilst it would be a surprise to see those kind of scores today, anything over par will not be good enough.
Our pre-event selections remain in a good position after round three. James Hahn (13/2) and Matt NeSmith (9/1) were advised pre-tournament in the top 20 market and sit 7th and 13th. Of our outright selections, Brooks Koepka birdied five of his final six holes to move into 7th.
Weather conditions today will be much the same as yesterday - sunny with almost no wind to speak of (5mph max).
-18 Schauffele
-18 Spieth
-15 Scheffler
-15 K H Lee
-14 Thomas
-14 Oosthuizen
In a round that was reminiscent of his glory years, Jordan Spieth fired a sensational 61 to hold a share of the lead going into the final day. It may have started with routine pars at the first and last, but he certainly packed the usual Spieth drama into the other 16 holes. Remarkable recovery shots (from wild drives), consecutive 35ft birdie putts, a missed 4ft eagle putt and a chip in were only some of the highlights of a round that could easily have broken 60. It was a performance we haven't seen in a long while from Jordan and certainly begs the question: is he back?
We'd all like to see Spieth find his game again - he undoubtedly makes great viewing. However, there are a couple of factors which suggest we're unlikely to see him win. He's been out of contention for a long time now and was poor the last time he was in and around the lead (2020 Charles Schwab Challenge). His iron play yesterday was sensational, and although not impossible we are unlikely to see that again today. A solid round from Jordan would be nice to see but there has to be question marks over whether he can win for the first time in three and a half years.
One person who may benefit from the media attention on Jordan is Xander Schauffele. He will go under the radar a little and seek to notch his first win in two years by "hanging in there," a quote he gave yesterday. To do so he'll have to improve on his record when holding a 54 hole lead - he's 0-3 when leading or co-leading. He's been poor in contention in recent times and holds a Golf Betting Club Pressure Performance Rating of 2 ⭐. With best odds of 19/20, we aren't in a rush to back him.
The chasing pack will be hoping for a similar outcome to that of when Spieth and Schauffele last played together. In the final group at the 2018 Open Championship, the pair shot 76 and 74 to let slip any chance of winning. Whilst it would be a surprise to see those kind of scores today, anything over par will not be good enough.
Our pre-event selections remain in a good position after round three. James Hahn (13/2) and Matt NeSmith (9/1) were advised pre-tournament in the top 20 market and sit 7th and 13th. Of our outright selections, Brooks Koepka birdied five of his final six holes to move into 7th.
Weather conditions today will be much the same as yesterday - sunny with almost no wind to speak of (5mph max).
Sunday's Bets
Were it not for 5 dropped shots on two holes this week, JT would be leading going into the final round. A silly triple bogey on day one at the driveable par 4 17th, and a double on his opening hole in round two, have left him playing catch up. However, with doubts over the leaders and with JT trying to get one over his good friend Jordan Spieth, it's not unthinkable he shoots a low round to snatch this. Yesterday's 64 came relatively easily and provided he can keep the silly mistakes off his card he has the firepower to win. His last (2020 WGC FedEx) came from four behind and it's also notable that his other win in 2020 came when trailing Xander Schauffele. Let's hope that's a good omen today.
Scottie has history of winning from off the pace and he's the type of player who is capable of a really low round. His first win on the Korn Ferry Tour came from five back, shooting a closing 63 to win the 2019 Evan Scholars Invitational. He also won from behind at the 2019 Nationwide Children's Hospital Championship. His first win on the PGA Tour is likely to come from off the pace and this is just the sort of tournament where he could breakthrough.
6 February 10.45
-12 Schauffele
-11 Stricker
-11 Bradley
-10 Burns
-10 Scheffler
-10 K H Lee
Xander Schauffele has moved to the top of the leaderboard in Phoenix and is now 13/8 favourite with the bookmakers. Given the way he has started the season the price is entirely understandable. Top 5 finishes in both starts this year suggest a win is around the corner. However, it's been over two years since Xander won a tournament and he's let slip a number of good opportunities during that time. His record when leading isn't strong (see our Player Profile) and he'll undoubtedly come under pressure today with ideal scoring conditions forecast.
In addition to Xander's personal failures, winners here generally come from behind at halfway. Last year's champion Webb Simpson trailed by four shots after 36 holes, Gary Woodland trailed by three at halfway in 2018, Hideki Matsuyama trailed by 1 in 2017 and 3 in 2016. The 2015 champion, Brooks Koepka, trailed by seven shots!
Our pre-event selections remain in a good position after round two. Both Matt NeSmith (9/1) and James Hahn (13/2) were advised pre-tournament in the top 20 market and are tied 8th. Of our outright selections, Brooks Koepka is moving into contention and lurks in 8th place.
Weather conditions today will be much the same as yesterday - sunny with almost no wind to speak of (5mph max)
-12 Schauffele
-11 Stricker
-11 Bradley
-10 Burns
-10 Scheffler
-10 K H Lee
Xander Schauffele has moved to the top of the leaderboard in Phoenix and is now 13/8 favourite with the bookmakers. Given the way he has started the season the price is entirely understandable. Top 5 finishes in both starts this year suggest a win is around the corner. However, it's been over two years since Xander won a tournament and he's let slip a number of good opportunities during that time. His record when leading isn't strong (see our Player Profile) and he'll undoubtedly come under pressure today with ideal scoring conditions forecast.
In addition to Xander's personal failures, winners here generally come from behind at halfway. Last year's champion Webb Simpson trailed by four shots after 36 holes, Gary Woodland trailed by three at halfway in 2018, Hideki Matsuyama trailed by 1 in 2017 and 3 in 2016. The 2015 champion, Brooks Koepka, trailed by seven shots!
Our pre-event selections remain in a good position after round two. Both Matt NeSmith (9/1) and James Hahn (13/2) were advised pre-tournament in the top 20 market and are tied 8th. Of our outright selections, Brooks Koepka is moving into contention and lurks in 8th place.
Weather conditions today will be much the same as yesterday - sunny with almost no wind to speak of (5mph max)
Saturday's Bet
Nate had a really sloppy finish to his round yesterday, finishing with two bogeys. However, that's pushed his price out to 66/1 and he's worth a bet. He resides in Scottsdale and practices on the course so is extremely comfortable here. This was evidenced by his 3rd place last year, when he said he wasn't particularly happy with his game but managed his way around. A 3rd place finish on the PGA Tour is no mean feat when you don't have your best game. We like the fact that Nate's long game appears to be in better shape this time. He ranks 6th for SG: Approach and his driving was good on day one (even if it wasn't so great yesterday). A winner on the PGA Tour in 2019, Nate can challenge this weekend.
5 February 02.00
-8 Hubbard
-8 NeSmith
-7 Lashley
-7 Burns
-6 Stricker
It was an unusual day at the Phoenix Open as the favourites struggled and the leaderboard is stacked with players who started at huge odds. Pre-tournament favourites such as Webb Simpson, Sungjae Im, Harris English, Rickie Fowler and Gary Woodland all find themselves over par and in danger of missing the cut. Even the favourites who did manage to break par found themselves making uncharacteristic errors. Rory McIlroy played his first two holes in +3, Justin Thomas made a triple bogey 7 at the driveable 17th and Jon Rahm disappointed bogey free backers by making a careless bogey at his final hole.
It may have been the top players struggled to adjust to having fans back. Justin Thomas twice backed off a shot on the 18th tee when fans disturbed him. Whatever it was, only Xander Schauffele was able to break into the top 10 from the players who were chalked up at 50/1 or less pre-tournament. As a result, he now finds himself 4/1 favourite.
Despite similar conditions, the morning wave scored far better than the afternoon starters. Only Steve Stricker managed to get to -6 out of the afternoon players and those players will need to make up ground with an early tee time tomorrow.
Our pre-event subscribers are in a good position after Matt NeSmith (9/1) and James Hahn (13/2) were advised pre-tournament in the top 20 market. Both are comfortably inside the top 20 after round one and hopefully their fine play continues. We also have several players in the outright market inside the top 25.
As we mentioned in our Preview, winners here have generally found themselves no more than three shots off the lead after the first round. Webb Simpson won last year after an opening round of 71 but this was very much the exception to the rule.
Weather conditions today will be much the same as yesterday, sunny with almost no wind to speak of until very late afternoon when the wind will pick up to around 8mph.
-8 Hubbard
-8 NeSmith
-7 Lashley
-7 Burns
-6 Stricker
It was an unusual day at the Phoenix Open as the favourites struggled and the leaderboard is stacked with players who started at huge odds. Pre-tournament favourites such as Webb Simpson, Sungjae Im, Harris English, Rickie Fowler and Gary Woodland all find themselves over par and in danger of missing the cut. Even the favourites who did manage to break par found themselves making uncharacteristic errors. Rory McIlroy played his first two holes in +3, Justin Thomas made a triple bogey 7 at the driveable 17th and Jon Rahm disappointed bogey free backers by making a careless bogey at his final hole.
It may have been the top players struggled to adjust to having fans back. Justin Thomas twice backed off a shot on the 18th tee when fans disturbed him. Whatever it was, only Xander Schauffele was able to break into the top 10 from the players who were chalked up at 50/1 or less pre-tournament. As a result, he now finds himself 4/1 favourite.
Despite similar conditions, the morning wave scored far better than the afternoon starters. Only Steve Stricker managed to get to -6 out of the afternoon players and those players will need to make up ground with an early tee time tomorrow.
Our pre-event subscribers are in a good position after Matt NeSmith (9/1) and James Hahn (13/2) were advised pre-tournament in the top 20 market. Both are comfortably inside the top 20 after round one and hopefully their fine play continues. We also have several players in the outright market inside the top 25.
As we mentioned in our Preview, winners here have generally found themselves no more than three shots off the lead after the first round. Webb Simpson won last year after an opening round of 71 but this was very much the exception to the rule.
Weather conditions today will be much the same as yesterday, sunny with almost no wind to speak of until very late afternoon when the wind will pick up to around 8mph.
Friday's Bets
It's easy to forget that Ted is a two time PGA Tour winner, having won in 2018 and 2012. He's about as unpredictable as they come but he's started well this week with a round of -5. We shortlisted him this week after his top 20 finish last week at the Farmers but that finish was largely built on his short game so he was left out. His round today was much the same but he's a player who's capable of stringing three more rounds together and given he's a proven winner, he's worth an investment at three figure odds.
Michael was another on our shortlist pre-event and we'd be devastated not to be on him at all, were he to go on and do something this week. Having fallen off a cliff since his comprehensive win at the John Deere Classic in 2018, his stats have been promising the past few events and there's definite signs of life in his game again. He played really nicely in his opening round, shooting -4 in the afternoon and ranking 15th SG: Off The Tee and 4th SG Approach. Let's remember this is a guy who won a PGA Tour event by 8 shots on the back of a run of missed cuts. If he continues to play as he did in round one he's got every chance of being in the mix on Sunday.
Michael was another on our shortlist pre-event and we'd be devastated not to be on him at all, were he to go on and do something this week. Having fallen off a cliff since his comprehensive win at the John Deere Classic in 2018, his stats have been promising the past few events and there's definite signs of life in his game again. He played really nicely in his opening round, shooting -4 in the afternoon and ranking 15th SG: Off The Tee and 4th SG Approach. Let's remember this is a guy who won a PGA Tour event by 8 shots on the back of a run of missed cuts. If he continues to play as he did in round one he's got every chance of being in the mix on Sunday.
Nick, who Monday qualified for this tournament by holing a clutch 12ft birdie putt, had a solid year on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020, recording five top 10 finishes in 22 starts. A 14th place finish in his last start at the Sony Open was encouraging and his play during round one here was equally impressive. A player with a lot of heart, he has stated he believes he can break into the top 50 in the world in the coming years. A three under par round where he was inside the top 25 for SG: Approach and SG: Off The Tee was a good start and there's every reason to think he can snatch an each way place or more this week.
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