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PGA Tour Tips & Preview
The Memorial 2020 Preview
Starts - 16th July 2020
Course - Muirfield Village Golf Club
Par - 72 (36-36)
Length – 7,392 yards
Grass type – Bentgrass
Defending Champion - N/A
Course - Muirfield Village Golf Club
Par - 72 (36-36)
Length – 7,392 yards
Grass type – Bentgrass
Defending Champion - N/A
Course Info
For the second week running, Muirfield Village Golf Club hosts the PGA Tour as it is the turn of The Memorial to be played here. Opened in 1974, this is a Jack Nicklaus designed course located in his hometown of Dublin, Ohio.
The Memorial has been played here since 1976 so we have a wealth of course form and stats to draw upon.
As with most Nicklaus designed courses, Muirfield Village offers room off the tee. Whilst the rough is often punishing, we shouldn't underestimate the significance of the course being used for two consecutive weeks. The rough will have grown slightly this week and there are also a number of holes where players are forced to lay up - so there is a significant chance players may experience more shots than usual out of divots.
Player quotes indicate that faders of the ball are favoured at Muirfield Village.
The greens are usually quick and we can expect them to be much faster than last week. They are also being ripped up immediately after the event so it'll be interesting to see how they manage the greens given there is no need to protect them post-tournament.
The par 5s are all reachable in two and the par 3s aren't the shortest, ranging from range from 185-200+ yards. There are six really demanding par 4s in excess of 450 yards and, combined with the long par 3s, cause the players the most difficulty.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Compared to previous weeks, it was quiet on the Covid-19 front at the Workday Charity Open. However, given the situation in America we should still be alert to the possibility of players being affected prior to Thursday and during the event.
Continue to exercise an abundance of caution (credit: Chase Koepka and the PGA Tour) at the outset, especially in relation to those who haven't teed it up yet and keep a watching brief in-play.
Trends
In the last ten years, only one winner has been an event debutant (Hideki Matsuyama in 2014). Of the nine winners who have played here before, all bar one had previously recorded a top 40 finish. Six had posted a top 20 before winning. However, we should note that Collin Morikawa was a course debutant when he won last week at the Workday Charity Open.
With the exception of 2012 (-9), winning scores at MV in the last 10 years have varied between 12 under par and 19 under.
There have been four play-offs in the last six years at the Memorial (there was also a playoff last week) and no player has won by a margin greater than 3 shots since 2004 (Ernie Els).
Americans have won seven of the last ten Memorial tournaments (Collin Morikawa continued this trend last week also).
Stats Analysis
In the last couple of years we have seen the winners diverge from the tried and tested formula at the Memorial. Both Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau ranked 4th for driving distance and neither was within the top 50 for driving accuracy. Last week Collin Morikawa ranked 9th in Driving Accuracy but he was no slouch off the tee either as he ranked 19th in Driving Distance. Players who rank highly for both accuracy and distance are preferred this week.
Three of the last four winners have ranked within the top 10 for Strokes Gained: Approach. Only DeChambeau in 2018 ranked outside the top 10 SG: Approach (ranking 24th) and this was in the main thanks to a hot putter. Morikawa ranked 3rd in SG: Approach when he won last week so a strong iron player is definitely preferable.
Three of the last five winners have ranked inside the top 7 for Strokes Gained: Putting but we should also remember that Jason Dufner won here in 2017 ranking 47th (!) in this category. Bad putters can win if they have an exceptional week tee to green. It should also be noted that some really awful putters like Hideki Matsuyama, Emiliano Grillo and Byeong-Hun An have very respectable records here.
In-play
Leaders don't have the best record here. Patrick Cantlay, last year, and Jason Dufner (2017) both won from four back. David Lingmerth came from three shots back in 2015 and Hideki Matsuyama trailed by two in 2014.
Last week Morikawa come from three shots back in what was a roller coaster final round as he trailed Justin Thomas by two shots with two holes to go.
Where winners have held the lead in recent years (DeChambeau in 2018 and William McGirt in 2016), they have won after significant challenges (in both years challengers went heavy odds on favourites in running).
With this in mind, we should look for value in the chasing pack going into the final round.
*As ever, follow our daily in-play updates and tips on our Memorial in-play page*
For the second week running, Muirfield Village Golf Club hosts the PGA Tour as it is the turn of The Memorial to be played here. Opened in 1974, this is a Jack Nicklaus designed course located in his hometown of Dublin, Ohio.
The Memorial has been played here since 1976 so we have a wealth of course form and stats to draw upon.
As with most Nicklaus designed courses, Muirfield Village offers room off the tee. Whilst the rough is often punishing, we shouldn't underestimate the significance of the course being used for two consecutive weeks. The rough will have grown slightly this week and there are also a number of holes where players are forced to lay up - so there is a significant chance players may experience more shots than usual out of divots.
Player quotes indicate that faders of the ball are favoured at Muirfield Village.
The greens are usually quick and we can expect them to be much faster than last week. They are also being ripped up immediately after the event so it'll be interesting to see how they manage the greens given there is no need to protect them post-tournament.
The par 5s are all reachable in two and the par 3s aren't the shortest, ranging from range from 185-200+ yards. There are six really demanding par 4s in excess of 450 yards and, combined with the long par 3s, cause the players the most difficulty.
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
Compared to previous weeks, it was quiet on the Covid-19 front at the Workday Charity Open. However, given the situation in America we should still be alert to the possibility of players being affected prior to Thursday and during the event.
Continue to exercise an abundance of caution (credit: Chase Koepka and the PGA Tour) at the outset, especially in relation to those who haven't teed it up yet and keep a watching brief in-play.
Trends
In the last ten years, only one winner has been an event debutant (Hideki Matsuyama in 2014). Of the nine winners who have played here before, all bar one had previously recorded a top 40 finish. Six had posted a top 20 before winning. However, we should note that Collin Morikawa was a course debutant when he won last week at the Workday Charity Open.
With the exception of 2012 (-9), winning scores at MV in the last 10 years have varied between 12 under par and 19 under.
There have been four play-offs in the last six years at the Memorial (there was also a playoff last week) and no player has won by a margin greater than 3 shots since 2004 (Ernie Els).
Americans have won seven of the last ten Memorial tournaments (Collin Morikawa continued this trend last week also).
Stats Analysis
In the last couple of years we have seen the winners diverge from the tried and tested formula at the Memorial. Both Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau ranked 4th for driving distance and neither was within the top 50 for driving accuracy. Last week Collin Morikawa ranked 9th in Driving Accuracy but he was no slouch off the tee either as he ranked 19th in Driving Distance. Players who rank highly for both accuracy and distance are preferred this week.
Three of the last four winners have ranked within the top 10 for Strokes Gained: Approach. Only DeChambeau in 2018 ranked outside the top 10 SG: Approach (ranking 24th) and this was in the main thanks to a hot putter. Morikawa ranked 3rd in SG: Approach when he won last week so a strong iron player is definitely preferable.
Three of the last five winners have ranked inside the top 7 for Strokes Gained: Putting but we should also remember that Jason Dufner won here in 2017 ranking 47th (!) in this category. Bad putters can win if they have an exceptional week tee to green. It should also be noted that some really awful putters like Hideki Matsuyama, Emiliano Grillo and Byeong-Hun An have very respectable records here.
In-play
Leaders don't have the best record here. Patrick Cantlay, last year, and Jason Dufner (2017) both won from four back. David Lingmerth came from three shots back in 2015 and Hideki Matsuyama trailed by two in 2014.
Last week Morikawa come from three shots back in what was a roller coaster final round as he trailed Justin Thomas by two shots with two holes to go.
Where winners have held the lead in recent years (DeChambeau in 2018 and William McGirt in 2016), they have won after significant challenges (in both years challengers went heavy odds on favourites in running).
With this in mind, we should look for value in the chasing pack going into the final round.
*As ever, follow our daily in-play updates and tips on our Memorial in-play page*
Memorial - Six To Watch
As outlined in our Tipping Record, our strategy is to focus on speciality bets and value in-play. However, we have identified the following six players if you do wish to place a bet before the event begins:
Patrick Cantlay - 14/1 @ William Hill
Patrick is undeniably short this week. However, his record at Muirfield Village is exceptional as he's finished 4th and 1st in the last two Memorials and came 7th last week. His performance last week was even more impressive when you consider it was only his second start since golf resumed. He finished last week with an effortless 65 which he stated could easily have been lower. Conditions being harder this week are likely to suit and he'll enter this week with as much confidence as anyone.
Tiger Woods - 25/1 @ William Hill
Thursday will be the first time we've seen Tiger tee it up on the PGA Tour since February at the Genesis Invitational. A 10 week break at the end of last year didn't stop him dominating the Zozo Championship in Japan. We also saw him in action at the Charity match with Phil Mickelson and he was in sparkling form. Obviously we'll take that with a pinch of salt but it was encouraging to see him play well. Tiger is a multiple winner at Memorial and there's every chance he wins again this week. To put Tiger's price this week in context, he's a general price of 14/1 to win the US PGA in a few weeks.
Billy Horschel - 80/1 @ Bet365
Billy said on Sunday that he "loves" Muirfield Village and he played "really good" as he finished tied 7th. He went on to say that he had his instructor, Todd Anderson, arriving on Monday who would "tighten everything up" and fix his flaws in a "snap of the fingers." He's a player who plays well when he is confident and can back up good results the following week so his interview was really encouraging. He posted a 9th place finish last year at Memorial so thats consecutive top 10s at this course and the 80/1 being offered is too generous for a player who has won a FedEx Cup and multiple events on tour.
Jason Day - 66/1 @ Betway
Jason Day showed enough last week to indicate he’s not too far off putting it all together for one week. A final round 65 in firmer conditions which we should expect this week was good enough for a 7th place finish and after the round he was very positive about how his game is progressing. Putting has mainly been his issue this year, however he has been putting in the work over lockdown and is starting to see the results. This is a home tournament for Jason and he could make odds of 66/1 look very silly come Sunday.
Danny Willett - 125/1 @ William Hill
Although Danny missing last week could be perceived as a slight negative, it hasn’t been forgotten how well he played the week prior to finish 4th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, despite an opening round 71 leaving him 6 shots back on Thursday. He finished 6th tee to green which is interesting as putting has been a strength for him this season. Finished 27th last year here at his course debut and has the game to improve on that this year. Danny showed last year that he is rock solid in the mix when he defeated Jon Rahm to win the BMW PGA Championship.
Troy Merritt - 225/1 @ Bet365
Troy is our outside pick this week since impressing the last couple of weeks. 8th at Rocket Mortgage was followed by a 22nd place finish last week. He showed strong iron play finishing 5th SG: Approach the green and 9th for Greens In Regulation. If Troy can find a few more fairways this week he could put himself in a position to get a place at monster odds. Also finished 17th here last year.
Patrick Cantlay - 14/1 @ William Hill
Patrick is undeniably short this week. However, his record at Muirfield Village is exceptional as he's finished 4th and 1st in the last two Memorials and came 7th last week. His performance last week was even more impressive when you consider it was only his second start since golf resumed. He finished last week with an effortless 65 which he stated could easily have been lower. Conditions being harder this week are likely to suit and he'll enter this week with as much confidence as anyone.
Tiger Woods - 25/1 @ William Hill
Thursday will be the first time we've seen Tiger tee it up on the PGA Tour since February at the Genesis Invitational. A 10 week break at the end of last year didn't stop him dominating the Zozo Championship in Japan. We also saw him in action at the Charity match with Phil Mickelson and he was in sparkling form. Obviously we'll take that with a pinch of salt but it was encouraging to see him play well. Tiger is a multiple winner at Memorial and there's every chance he wins again this week. To put Tiger's price this week in context, he's a general price of 14/1 to win the US PGA in a few weeks.
Billy Horschel - 80/1 @ Bet365
Billy said on Sunday that he "loves" Muirfield Village and he played "really good" as he finished tied 7th. He went on to say that he had his instructor, Todd Anderson, arriving on Monday who would "tighten everything up" and fix his flaws in a "snap of the fingers." He's a player who plays well when he is confident and can back up good results the following week so his interview was really encouraging. He posted a 9th place finish last year at Memorial so thats consecutive top 10s at this course and the 80/1 being offered is too generous for a player who has won a FedEx Cup and multiple events on tour.
Jason Day - 66/1 @ Betway
Jason Day showed enough last week to indicate he’s not too far off putting it all together for one week. A final round 65 in firmer conditions which we should expect this week was good enough for a 7th place finish and after the round he was very positive about how his game is progressing. Putting has mainly been his issue this year, however he has been putting in the work over lockdown and is starting to see the results. This is a home tournament for Jason and he could make odds of 66/1 look very silly come Sunday.
Danny Willett - 125/1 @ William Hill
Although Danny missing last week could be perceived as a slight negative, it hasn’t been forgotten how well he played the week prior to finish 4th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, despite an opening round 71 leaving him 6 shots back on Thursday. He finished 6th tee to green which is interesting as putting has been a strength for him this season. Finished 27th last year here at his course debut and has the game to improve on that this year. Danny showed last year that he is rock solid in the mix when he defeated Jon Rahm to win the BMW PGA Championship.
Troy Merritt - 225/1 @ Bet365
Troy is our outside pick this week since impressing the last couple of weeks. 8th at Rocket Mortgage was followed by a 22nd place finish last week. He showed strong iron play finishing 5th SG: Approach the green and 9th for Greens In Regulation. If Troy can find a few more fairways this week he could put himself in a position to get a place at monster odds. Also finished 17th here last year.
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