PGA Tour In-Play Tips
The Memorial Tournament In-Play Tips
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19 July 2020
-12 Rahm
-8 Palmer
-8 Finau
-6 Willett
-5 Norlander
-5 Day
-4 Wallace
-4 Reavie
Jon Rahm shot an exceptional 68 yesterday to take a four stroke lead into today's final round. With greens becoming hard and fast, players struggled to post the low scores that we saw on Friday, with only Brendon Todd managing to equal Rahm's score.
Understandably, Jon goes into today's final round as hot favourite (1/4) and rightly so owing to the quality of golf he is playing. His interviews have been extremely impressive as he has spoken about remaining committed to each shot and accepting that mistakes will inevitably happen. He also plays today with Ryan Palmer, a close friend and his playing partner when they won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans last year.
There are a number of reasons to suggest Jon is worth taking on today. He's 0/2 when holding a 54 hole lead on the PGA Tour, having lost out when leading by a single stroke at The Players Championship in 2019 and the Farmers Insurance Open this year. The wind is forecast to be strong today with 16mph+ winds expected, making an already difficult course even harder. Lets be clear, Jon will make bogeys today and the test will be how he handles those.
Jon also has the pressure of knowing that a win today would see him take over as world number one, something he describes as "extremely important" to him. An exciting final day awaits!
-12 Rahm
-8 Palmer
-8 Finau
-6 Willett
-5 Norlander
-5 Day
-4 Wallace
-4 Reavie
Jon Rahm shot an exceptional 68 yesterday to take a four stroke lead into today's final round. With greens becoming hard and fast, players struggled to post the low scores that we saw on Friday, with only Brendon Todd managing to equal Rahm's score.
Understandably, Jon goes into today's final round as hot favourite (1/4) and rightly so owing to the quality of golf he is playing. His interviews have been extremely impressive as he has spoken about remaining committed to each shot and accepting that mistakes will inevitably happen. He also plays today with Ryan Palmer, a close friend and his playing partner when they won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans last year.
There are a number of reasons to suggest Jon is worth taking on today. He's 0/2 when holding a 54 hole lead on the PGA Tour, having lost out when leading by a single stroke at The Players Championship in 2019 and the Farmers Insurance Open this year. The wind is forecast to be strong today with 16mph+ winds expected, making an already difficult course even harder. Lets be clear, Jon will make bogeys today and the test will be how he handles those.
Jon also has the pressure of knowing that a win today would see him take over as world number one, something he describes as "extremely important" to him. An exciting final day awaits!
Sunday's Bets
As we mentioned above, Ryan partnered Jon Rahm to the 2019 Zurich Classic of New Orleans. He's not normally one to trust on a Sunday afternoon but this comfortable pairing and the fact he is the chaser may suit him down to the ground. He's a comfortable wind player and his tee-to-green stats have been exceptional this week, ranking 2nd in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. He was unlucky on the greens yesterday and he's worth risking at 14/1.
In the event the front three escape the field it is worth having a look at Boylesport's market without the leaders. These two players are proven in the wind so can be backed with confidence going into the final round. Both shot under par yesterday and are only two shots off the each way places in this market. On a day when big swings are expected these are solid plays.
We'd normally avoid #YourOdds bets like this but the way the event is shaping up we actually think it represents very good value. Pins are tucked away for the final round and with the wind up it is difficult to see anyone from the chasing pack shooting low.
With that in mind, Finau and Rahm can probably go over par and still make the top 10. Jason Day loves firm and fast conditions and if today is to be a grind, he's the man for the job. He mentioned in his interview yesterday that he's "looking forward to tomorrow" and it's going to be "a lot of fun" so he's clearly relishing the test. He also referenced conditions being similar to the Players Championship he won in 2016. All three should make the top 10.
With that in mind, Finau and Rahm can probably go over par and still make the top 10. Jason Day loves firm and fast conditions and if today is to be a grind, he's the man for the job. He mentioned in his interview yesterday that he's "looking forward to tomorrow" and it's going to be "a lot of fun" so he's clearly relishing the test. He also referenced conditions being similar to the Players Championship he won in 2016. All three should make the top 10.
18 July 2020
-9 Finau
-9 Palmer
-8 Rahm
-6 Woodland
-6 Reavie
-6 List
-5 Day
With the wind nowhere near as strong, and almost benign conditions early on, we saw much lower scoring yesterday. Of the top seven golfers above, only two (List and Day) played in the afternoon. The top two remain the same from day one.
The players were unanimous that conditions are getting firmer. Jason Day stated in his interview that "the ball started bouncing a lot today, so it's going to be a bit of a grind out there over the next two days." With the wind forecast to be strong on the last day we could have an interesting weekend.
Talking point of the day was undoubtedly Bryson DeChambeau's 10 on the 15th hole. A couple of balls out of bounds, some unnecessary behaviour towards referees and his caddie blocking the camera from recording him (albeit on the next hole) were all part of the Bryson Show. Keep in mind that he was berating himself on the first hole yesterday about the quality of his wedge play after he had hit a monster drive. He's clearly a man who, for all the gains he's made off the tee, is still not entirely comfortable with the changes going on with his swing/body.
Tiger's comeback almost ended in a missed cut as he struggled to a 76. However, the cut moved to +3 late in the day and he's made the weekend on the number. It is a worry though that he missed two putts under 4ft.
As previously stated, the forecast is for it to be relatively calm again today with the wind kicking up to 9mph later in the afternoon. Sunday looks interesting with winds of 15mph with potential gusts up to 28mph.
-9 Finau
-9 Palmer
-8 Rahm
-6 Woodland
-6 Reavie
-6 List
-5 Day
With the wind nowhere near as strong, and almost benign conditions early on, we saw much lower scoring yesterday. Of the top seven golfers above, only two (List and Day) played in the afternoon. The top two remain the same from day one.
The players were unanimous that conditions are getting firmer. Jason Day stated in his interview that "the ball started bouncing a lot today, so it's going to be a bit of a grind out there over the next two days." With the wind forecast to be strong on the last day we could have an interesting weekend.
Talking point of the day was undoubtedly Bryson DeChambeau's 10 on the 15th hole. A couple of balls out of bounds, some unnecessary behaviour towards referees and his caddie blocking the camera from recording him (albeit on the next hole) were all part of the Bryson Show. Keep in mind that he was berating himself on the first hole yesterday about the quality of his wedge play after he had hit a monster drive. He's clearly a man who, for all the gains he's made off the tee, is still not entirely comfortable with the changes going on with his swing/body.
Tiger's comeback almost ended in a missed cut as he struggled to a 76. However, the cut moved to +3 late in the day and he's made the weekend on the number. It is a worry though that he missed two putts under 4ft.
As previously stated, the forecast is for it to be relatively calm again today with the wind kicking up to 9mph later in the afternoon. Sunday looks interesting with winds of 15mph with potential gusts up to 28mph.
Saturday's Bets
Justin lost out here last week in a playoff against Collin Morikawa and through the first 13 holes on Thursday it looked very much like he was suffering a significant hangover. He was four over par and looking like a man who was going to miss the cut. His putting was particularly poor on day one and he struggled with the difference in pace from last week. However, two birdies in the final five holes on Thursday and a bogey free 67 yesterday have seen him climb to 16th. His slow start means that he'll do well to catch Rahm and Finau now, but he can go low over the weekend and be best of the rest.
Luke has played incredibly well this week, recording only one bogey over his opening two rounds. He ranks 6th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green. He's highest placed from the morning/afternoon side of the draw, showing just how well he has played.
We know he can handle the wind as he won at a blustery TPC Sawgrass in June on the Korn Ferry Tour. At the time he was quoted as saying, "It was challenging out there today. The wind was swirling, it was gusting pretty hard, we had a lot of into-cross winds, so I’m happy with 3-under, for sure." He's a solid each way play in this market.
We know he can handle the wind as he won at a blustery TPC Sawgrass in June on the Korn Ferry Tour. At the time he was quoted as saying, "It was challenging out there today. The wind was swirling, it was gusting pretty hard, we had a lot of into-cross winds, so I’m happy with 3-under, for sure." He's a solid each way play in this market.
Danny shot a sparkling 66 yesterday to haul himself back into things. A previous Masters winner, he hinted that a return to form was imminent with a 4th place finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in his last start. A fine player in firm and fast conditions, he's also got experience of seeing off Jon Rahm (at the BMW PGA Championship in 2019). If it comes down to a battle with him and Rahm. Danny closed with 67-66 at the Rocket Mortgage. A similar finish this weekend would get very close.
Collin won here last week and suffered a first round hangover, shooting a 76. On closer inspection this was due to a three hole stretch and in his post round interview stated, "I was 5-over through a three-hole stretch. I had two three-putts today, so just clean things up for tomorrow and we're perfectly fine." That proved to be the case yesterday as he bounced back with a two under par 70. Tiger struggled yesterday and was lucky to make the cut. His short putting is a cause for concern and he had several good scrambles to save par. Collin can defeat him today.
For the reasons we have highlighted above we think Justin is in for a strong weekend. Rory is obviously quite capable of a brilliant weekend also, but with conditions firming up this is likely to suit him less than Justin. Rory struggled with his irons yesterday and had four bogeys and a double. If he does that again today he's unlikely to get low enough to beat Justin.
17 July 2020
-6 Finau
-5 Palmer
-4 Steele
-4 Woodland
-3 Howell
-3 Rahm
-3 Glover
It was a very different Muirfield yesterday as the wind blew all day and a combination of faster greens and thicker rough gave some of the world's best players all sorts of problems.
A Rickie Fowler 81, Dustin Johnson 80 and Xander Schauffele 78 were the most shocking scores, and last week's play-off duo Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas could only manage 76 and 74 respectively. When asked how different the course played, Thomas replied "It's not even remotely close to the same. I mean, you've still got to hit the shots, and I don't want to say it was a disadvantage, but it was a totally, totally different golf course. The course is in fantastic shape right now. It's very tough."
Brendan Steele took the lead from the morning wave at -4 but he was soon overtaken by Tony Finau who fired 6 birdies on the back 9 for -6. Ryan Palmer went round bogey free to finish one back and Gary Woodland was able to match Steele's 68 to sit in third.
Tiger Woods threatened to take the first round lead after a fast start going 2 under par through 3 but could only manage a 71 to finish 5 behind. Market leaders Rory Mcllroy and Patrick Cantlay sit at -2 and Jon Rahm is one better at -3.
The forecast is for it to be a lot calmer today with hardly a breath of wind and much of the same Saturday. Sunday looks interesting with winds of 13mph with potential gusts up to 28mph.
Tony Finau goes out early today and has a chance to stretch away from the field a little in softer morning conditions. He commented after Round 1 that he is also taking the Bryson DeChambeau approach trying to increase his ball speed. He was hitting it a fair distance yesterday, including driving into the greenside bunker of the 366 yard 14th hole. He will do well to replicate yesterdays round however, as he was +4.4 strokes gained on the field with the putter.
-6 Finau
-5 Palmer
-4 Steele
-4 Woodland
-3 Howell
-3 Rahm
-3 Glover
It was a very different Muirfield yesterday as the wind blew all day and a combination of faster greens and thicker rough gave some of the world's best players all sorts of problems.
A Rickie Fowler 81, Dustin Johnson 80 and Xander Schauffele 78 were the most shocking scores, and last week's play-off duo Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas could only manage 76 and 74 respectively. When asked how different the course played, Thomas replied "It's not even remotely close to the same. I mean, you've still got to hit the shots, and I don't want to say it was a disadvantage, but it was a totally, totally different golf course. The course is in fantastic shape right now. It's very tough."
Brendan Steele took the lead from the morning wave at -4 but he was soon overtaken by Tony Finau who fired 6 birdies on the back 9 for -6. Ryan Palmer went round bogey free to finish one back and Gary Woodland was able to match Steele's 68 to sit in third.
Tiger Woods threatened to take the first round lead after a fast start going 2 under par through 3 but could only manage a 71 to finish 5 behind. Market leaders Rory Mcllroy and Patrick Cantlay sit at -2 and Jon Rahm is one better at -3.
The forecast is for it to be a lot calmer today with hardly a breath of wind and much of the same Saturday. Sunday looks interesting with winds of 13mph with potential gusts up to 28mph.
Tony Finau goes out early today and has a chance to stretch away from the field a little in softer morning conditions. He commented after Round 1 that he is also taking the Bryson DeChambeau approach trying to increase his ball speed. He was hitting it a fair distance yesterday, including driving into the greenside bunker of the 366 yard 14th hole. He will do well to replicate yesterdays round however, as he was +4.4 strokes gained on the field with the putter.
Friday's Bets
Paul hasn't played much golf since lockdown but he was 32nd on his only start at Travelers and has started nicely this week finishing -1. He was 5th SG: Tee to green and what stood out was the amount of fairways he hit - 11/13 (joint best in field).
With the greens firmed up, it seems you have to be playing from the fairway this week. Paul had a poor putting day but a little bit of improvement will see him rise up the leaderboard. He has a nice early tee time to make his move.
With the greens firmed up, it seems you have to be playing from the fairway this week. Paul had a poor putting day but a little bit of improvement will see him rise up the leaderboard. He has a nice early tee time to make his move.
It was a bit of a shock to see Dustin so out of sorts yesterday but we are equally surprised to see 10/11 available on the steady Patrick Cantlay to defeat him today. He won this match up by 10 shots yesterday and even though we expect an improvement from Dustin, Patrick loves this course and should have enough here.
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