PGA Tour In-Play Tips
The Masters In-Play Tips
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15th November 2020
-16 Johnson
-12 Ancer
-12 Im
-12 Smith
-11 Frittelli
The end of the second round didn't go as expected with Jon Rahm stalling on the back 9 - and before we knew it our 7/1 in-play selection Dustin Johnson had opened up a sizeable lead in the third. The world No 1 played holes 2-4 in eagle, birdie, birdie and made the rest of the round look like a walk in the park to open up a four shot advantage.
It is almost impossible to see Dustin losing this now. Odds of 1.44 on Betfair Exchange look, if anything, extremely generous. The only plausible argument is "this is Augusta, anything can happen", but it has been a different course this year and the soft fairways and slower greens reduce the possibility of drama unfolding.
All aspects of DJ's game are in terrific shape, and even as a backer it was almost boring watching him bend down to pick his tee up straight away after every drive. Skybet are doing a special on him hitting every fairway today at 20/1, which could be quite a fun way of enjoying the final round if you fancy a crazy bet!
Bookmakers are now offering how many shots he will win by and the 5/1 for him to win by 6 or more is tempting given who is in the chasing pack. Although high class PGA Tour players, Ancer and Im are Masters debutants and lack major last group experience on Sundays, while even Cameron Smith's two major top fives came from off the pace. Dylan Frittelli played beautifully yesterday, but you wouldn't be surprised if he continued the trend of 65-73-67. Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm sit at -10 and -9, but both flattered to deceive in their 3rd rounds.
We mentioned yesterday that Rahm made some really basic errors when contending at Zozo last time out and he would need to keep them off his scorecard, and boy did he not do that. Viewers were left stunned when he topped his 2nd shot on 8 into the woods and then compounded the error by hitting a tree with his 3rd, bouncing back into a bush. It led to a double bogey which effectively ended his chances barring a miracle today.
-16 Johnson
-12 Ancer
-12 Im
-12 Smith
-11 Frittelli
The end of the second round didn't go as expected with Jon Rahm stalling on the back 9 - and before we knew it our 7/1 in-play selection Dustin Johnson had opened up a sizeable lead in the third. The world No 1 played holes 2-4 in eagle, birdie, birdie and made the rest of the round look like a walk in the park to open up a four shot advantage.
It is almost impossible to see Dustin losing this now. Odds of 1.44 on Betfair Exchange look, if anything, extremely generous. The only plausible argument is "this is Augusta, anything can happen", but it has been a different course this year and the soft fairways and slower greens reduce the possibility of drama unfolding.
All aspects of DJ's game are in terrific shape, and even as a backer it was almost boring watching him bend down to pick his tee up straight away after every drive. Skybet are doing a special on him hitting every fairway today at 20/1, which could be quite a fun way of enjoying the final round if you fancy a crazy bet!
Bookmakers are now offering how many shots he will win by and the 5/1 for him to win by 6 or more is tempting given who is in the chasing pack. Although high class PGA Tour players, Ancer and Im are Masters debutants and lack major last group experience on Sundays, while even Cameron Smith's two major top fives came from off the pace. Dylan Frittelli played beautifully yesterday, but you wouldn't be surprised if he continued the trend of 65-73-67. Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm sit at -10 and -9, but both flattered to deceive in their 3rd rounds.
We mentioned yesterday that Rahm made some really basic errors when contending at Zozo last time out and he would need to keep them off his scorecard, and boy did he not do that. Viewers were left stunned when he topped his 2nd shot on 8 into the woods and then compounded the error by hitting a tree with his 3rd, bouncing back into a bush. It led to a double bogey which effectively ended his chances barring a miracle today.
Sunday's Bets
It has been a mixed week for with Dustin rewarding our faith after day 1, but our side bets have not worked out so far. With a bit of luck Webb Simpson can squeeze a top 10 and Victor Perez can bag an each way spot on top continental European. Three of our pre-event six to watch selections sit in the top 10 - Cameron Smith (80/1), Matsuyama (25/1) and Koepka (16/1), so it is still all to play for.
We are adding this play mainly due to the doubts we mentioned with the chasing pack. Rory looks like he could be the man to capitalise if they do fade, and how often does he leave his major charge too late. If you follow our twitter, you may have seen Justin Ray's post that since the beginning of 2015 Rory has played round 1 in +28 and rounds 2-4 in -61, which is a truly staggering stat.
It might not be too late for 2nd spot. He has played the last 36 holes lower than anyone, recording only one bogey. He tops the driving stats and a slight improvement in his iron play could see him go low. He will be firing at every pin and it would be no shock to see another 66/67.
We are adding this play mainly due to the doubts we mentioned with the chasing pack. Rory looks like he could be the man to capitalise if they do fade, and how often does he leave his major charge too late. If you follow our twitter, you may have seen Justin Ray's post that since the beginning of 2015 Rory has played round 1 in +28 and rounds 2-4 in -61, which is a truly staggering stat.
It might not be too late for 2nd spot. He has played the last 36 holes lower than anyone, recording only one bogey. He tops the driving stats and a slight improvement in his iron play could see him go low. He will be firing at every pin and it would be no shock to see another 66/67.
One final fun bet on offer today is 33/1 for Dustin and Rory to go bogey free at Skybet. DJ shouldn't be taking many chances and Rory is driving the ball so well he should keep out of trouble. DJ was bogey free yesterday and Rory has only made on bogey in the last 36 holes - on the 15th. The only negative is we don't know to what extent the course is going to play tougher but between the pair of them, they only made two bogey's in the final round of 2019 and seem to be playing better this year in easier conditions.
14th November 2020
-9 Ancer
-9 Smith
-9 Thomas
-9 D Johnson
Following on from the weather delay in round one, round two remains uncompleted with 29 players yet to finish. There are four players leading in the clubhouse at nine under par but we could yet see others join them, or even pass them. Jon Rahm has a short birdie putt at 13 to tie the lead when play resumes and it's likely he'll pick up another shot on the way home given he has the 15th and 16th to play.
With that in mind, Rahm is now favourite at the bookies at 10/3. That price implies he will finish round two ahead of the field but given the quality of the chasing pack we wouldn't advise getting onboard at that price. Rahm did well when converting at Memorial earlier this year but it'll be interesting to see how the pressure affects him if he takes the sole second round lead. He made some really basic errors when contending at Zozo last time out and he'll need to keep them off his scorecard given the depth behind.
Weather conditions are expected to be pleasant with no rain forecast and we should see the second and third rounds completed today with no problem. The course will dry out further and the greens are likely to be running faster also.
We should note that it will be a long day for those players yet to complete their second round and the players who have already completed their second round will probably have a slight advantage.
Cameron Smith (80/1) was one of our Six To Watch before the event began and it is pleasing to see him go into the weekend as joint leader. Our 7/1 in-play tip yesterday, Dustin Johnson goes into the weekend very much in the mix too.
-9 Ancer
-9 Smith
-9 Thomas
-9 D Johnson
Following on from the weather delay in round one, round two remains uncompleted with 29 players yet to finish. There are four players leading in the clubhouse at nine under par but we could yet see others join them, or even pass them. Jon Rahm has a short birdie putt at 13 to tie the lead when play resumes and it's likely he'll pick up another shot on the way home given he has the 15th and 16th to play.
With that in mind, Rahm is now favourite at the bookies at 10/3. That price implies he will finish round two ahead of the field but given the quality of the chasing pack we wouldn't advise getting onboard at that price. Rahm did well when converting at Memorial earlier this year but it'll be interesting to see how the pressure affects him if he takes the sole second round lead. He made some really basic errors when contending at Zozo last time out and he'll need to keep them off his scorecard given the depth behind.
Weather conditions are expected to be pleasant with no rain forecast and we should see the second and third rounds completed today with no problem. The course will dry out further and the greens are likely to be running faster also.
We should note that it will be a long day for those players yet to complete their second round and the players who have already completed their second round will probably have a slight advantage.
Cameron Smith (80/1) was one of our Six To Watch before the event began and it is pleasing to see him go into the weekend as joint leader. Our 7/1 in-play tip yesterday, Dustin Johnson goes into the weekend very much in the mix too.
Saturday's Bets
This bet came in last year as Webb posted a 5th place finish and we think it's value to come in again. Webb is currently 3 under par, playing the 15th hole of his second round. However, he's already hit his approach shot and has a 4ft putt for eagle when play resumes. Assuming he holes that, he will jump to 5 under par and 19th on the leaderboard. The course will firm up over the weekend and that will suit Webb. Tenth position is seven under par as it stands, so the 9/2 seems more than fair for a player who has stated that he has worked out how to play Augusta following years of poor results.
This bet will only be valid if Shane makes the cut (he is currently on the cut line). Shane was unable to complete his second round yesterday but is a couple under par and on course to make the cut. Excluding yesterday's unfinished round, Shane has had eleven competitive rounds at Augusta. He has only managed to break 71 on one occasion. Augusta is a demanding test physically and given Shane will have to play 26 holes today we think that further strengthens the case against him. Shane himself will acknowledge he isn't the fittest guy on Tour so it's going to be a big ask for him to follow up one low round with another (if he doesn't post a decent second round he won't make the cut). Finally, with the course drying up further, we should see the course play tougher and average scores increase.
13th November 2020
-7 Casey
-5 Simpson
-5 Schauffele
-5 Thomas (Through 10)
It was a frustrating start to the long awaited return to Augusta as the horn sounded after a few minutes of TV coverage due to some extreme weather conditions. It pushed play back three hours and as a result the afternoon starters still have half their rounds to finish.
Not to worry though, the forecast seems near perfect from here on in and we can only expect the course to get tougher as it dries out. With this in mind, it is important not to get too hung up on individual performances yesterday, as it is a completely different course when it's not target golf.
It's always trickier trying to assess who is the value in this scenario - for example, the rest of Justin Thomas' and Dustin Johnson's rounds can have a massive impact on the chances of those in the clubhouse who have already started well.
We've seen the troubles starting on the back 9 can have - Bryson and Rahm were both +2 at one point yesterday - and that is exactly what JT and Dustin will have to face today, but it also wouldn't be a huge shock if one of them were to catch Casey.
Of the favourites, and much to our disappointment, only Brooks Koepka has just about played his way out of it barring a low back 9 today. Despite Casey's fast start, it is still hard to see past the pre-event favourites. With this in mind, we have identified our most likely winner from here, as well as a couple of side plays.
-7 Casey
-5 Simpson
-5 Schauffele
-5 Thomas (Through 10)
It was a frustrating start to the long awaited return to Augusta as the horn sounded after a few minutes of TV coverage due to some extreme weather conditions. It pushed play back three hours and as a result the afternoon starters still have half their rounds to finish.
Not to worry though, the forecast seems near perfect from here on in and we can only expect the course to get tougher as it dries out. With this in mind, it is important not to get too hung up on individual performances yesterday, as it is a completely different course when it's not target golf.
It's always trickier trying to assess who is the value in this scenario - for example, the rest of Justin Thomas' and Dustin Johnson's rounds can have a massive impact on the chances of those in the clubhouse who have already started well.
We've seen the troubles starting on the back 9 can have - Bryson and Rahm were both +2 at one point yesterday - and that is exactly what JT and Dustin will have to face today, but it also wouldn't be a huge shock if one of them were to catch Casey.
Of the favourites, and much to our disappointment, only Brooks Koepka has just about played his way out of it barring a low back 9 today. Despite Casey's fast start, it is still hard to see past the pre-event favourites. With this in mind, we have identified our most likely winner from here, as well as a couple of side plays.
Friday's Bets
A mentioned in the preview, we were reluctant to play one of the favourites each way before the off due to the price, but given Dustin has only ever so slightly shortened after a fast start, we are more than happy to get onboard now for a win only bet. Dustin is -3 through 9 and has smashed a drive down 10. We can expect him to bag a couple more birdies coming in. We probably have a fast start from Justin Thomas to thank for his price holding up so nicely but even with a two shot head start, our money is on DJ to prevail. He is driving the ball beautifully and quite simply playing the best golf in the world right now - sometimes you just have to play it as you see it.
Firstly lets make it clear this tip is for the 2nd Round Leader market, not the 1st round! Justin currently sits on -3 after 9 holes and if he can get through Amen Corner unscathed there is no reason why he can't finish the round one or two off the 18 hole lead. We were tempted to put him up in the outright also, but the 50's from last night has disappeared and we feel this is the perfect market for him due to doubts that he can piece four rounds together at the moment.
Max has played the back 9 in -2, despite taking a double bogey on 12. A look back a the tracker shows how well he is driving the ball so far and there is no reason he can't kick on. The 2019 Wells Fargo champion posted four consecutive top 20's at the start of 2020 before losing his way, but his last couple of results have hinted he can return to those heights. Another angle is that when 5th at Genesis this year the leaderboard was filled with some of Augusta's top performers - Rory, Kuchar, Scott and Matsuyama. The Masters is a notoriously hard to play catch up and the hope is that this round will give him the confidence to stick around.
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