European Tour Tips & Preview
Alfred Dunhill Championship 2020 Preview
Starts - 26 November 2020
Course - Leopard Creek, Malelane, South Africa
Par - 72 (35-37)
Length – 7,249 yards
Defending Champion - Pablo Larrazabal
Course - Leopard Creek, Malelane, South Africa
Par - 72 (35-37)
Length – 7,249 yards
Defending Champion - Pablo Larrazabal
Course Info
Course Designer - Gary Player
Fairways - Firm, undulating.
Rough - Lush, surrounded by bushes and trees.
Greens - Bermuda, fast.
Water Hazards - Features throughout.
Par 5's - 2nd, 13th, 15th, 18th
Hosted Since - 2004
Premium on - Iron Play, Putting
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
There were big changes to the course in 2017, hence no tournament held that year. Fairways and rough changed from kikuyu to bermuda and greens were resurfaced.
Course now plays considerably tougher. Pablo Larrazabal won last year with -8 and scoring average was 74.34. Only four players bettered Larrazabal's score in 2018.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather Forecast
Warm temperatures ranging from 15 degrees early in morning to peaks of 32 degrees.
Thurs - Mostly cloudy. Wind 7mph, gusts of 15mph.
Fri - Potential thunderstorms. Wind 9mph, gusts of 17mph.
Sat - Low clouds, breaking sun. Wind 7mph, gusts of 15mph
Sun - Warmer with intervals of clouds and sunshine. Wind 9mph, gusts of 15mph
Stats Analysis
Strokes Gained stats are available for 2018, but there are none on the European Tour website for 2019. They show approach play is more important than driving around Leopard Creek, with a hot putter preferably.
SG: Off The Tee - None of the top 5 ranked higher than 20th in 2018.
SG: Approach - 4 of the top 5 ranked inside the top 10 in 2018. It is the key stat identified.
SG: Around the greens - 4 of the top 5 ranked inside the top 30 in 2018.
SG: Putting - 2 of the top 5 ranked inside the top 5 in 2018.
Trends
Winning score - Since the renovation, the winning scores have been -14 and -8. We can expect somewhere in between this week.
Course form - Larrazabal had solid form here and Lipsky was a debutant. The 7 winners before the changes all had a top 12 finish previously. Solid course form is preferred despite Lipsky's win.
Incoming form - Lipsky's was poor and Larrazabal had shown glimpses without setting the world alight. Before the course changes, just about every winner had a top 10 in their last 5 starts.
Nationality - Spanish and American winners in the last two events, but previously dominated by home winners before the course changes, with 6 South African's in a row.
In-play
Tough Holes - 7-10 is a tough stretch, ranked 1st, 5th, 3rd and 7th hardest. 16th played the 2nd toughest last year.
Birdie Holes - The three par 5s (2nd, 13th and 15th) play well under par and were the easiest on the course in 2019, along with the driveable par 4 6th.
Fast or Slow Start - Last year, Larrazabal and Besseling (3rd) were 1st and 2nd after round 1, but 2nd place Sjoholm came from 5 back. Sjoholm was 9 shots adrift at halfway and only lost by 1 in the end, partly due to a final round 75 for Larrazabal.
In 2018, David Drysdale was the only top 5 finisher who was within 3 of the lead after 18 holes. Catch up is possible.
*As ever, follow our daily in-play updates and tips on our Alfred Dunhill Championship in-play page*
Course Designer - Gary Player
Fairways - Firm, undulating.
Rough - Lush, surrounded by bushes and trees.
Greens - Bermuda, fast.
Water Hazards - Features throughout.
Par 5's - 2nd, 13th, 15th, 18th
Hosted Since - 2004
Premium on - Iron Play, Putting
Significant Info To Be Aware Of
There were big changes to the course in 2017, hence no tournament held that year. Fairways and rough changed from kikuyu to bermuda and greens were resurfaced.
Course now plays considerably tougher. Pablo Larrazabal won last year with -8 and scoring average was 74.34. Only four players bettered Larrazabal's score in 2018.
Continue to exercise caution in relation to Covid-19 related withdrawals.
Weather Forecast
Warm temperatures ranging from 15 degrees early in morning to peaks of 32 degrees.
Thurs - Mostly cloudy. Wind 7mph, gusts of 15mph.
Fri - Potential thunderstorms. Wind 9mph, gusts of 17mph.
Sat - Low clouds, breaking sun. Wind 7mph, gusts of 15mph
Sun - Warmer with intervals of clouds and sunshine. Wind 9mph, gusts of 15mph
Stats Analysis
Strokes Gained stats are available for 2018, but there are none on the European Tour website for 2019. They show approach play is more important than driving around Leopard Creek, with a hot putter preferably.
SG: Off The Tee - None of the top 5 ranked higher than 20th in 2018.
SG: Approach - 4 of the top 5 ranked inside the top 10 in 2018. It is the key stat identified.
SG: Around the greens - 4 of the top 5 ranked inside the top 30 in 2018.
SG: Putting - 2 of the top 5 ranked inside the top 5 in 2018.
Trends
Winning score - Since the renovation, the winning scores have been -14 and -8. We can expect somewhere in between this week.
Course form - Larrazabal had solid form here and Lipsky was a debutant. The 7 winners before the changes all had a top 12 finish previously. Solid course form is preferred despite Lipsky's win.
Incoming form - Lipsky's was poor and Larrazabal had shown glimpses without setting the world alight. Before the course changes, just about every winner had a top 10 in their last 5 starts.
Nationality - Spanish and American winners in the last two events, but previously dominated by home winners before the course changes, with 6 South African's in a row.
In-play
Tough Holes - 7-10 is a tough stretch, ranked 1st, 5th, 3rd and 7th hardest. 16th played the 2nd toughest last year.
Birdie Holes - The three par 5s (2nd, 13th and 15th) play well under par and were the easiest on the course in 2019, along with the driveable par 4 6th.
Fast or Slow Start - Last year, Larrazabal and Besseling (3rd) were 1st and 2nd after round 1, but 2nd place Sjoholm came from 5 back. Sjoholm was 9 shots adrift at halfway and only lost by 1 in the end, partly due to a final round 75 for Larrazabal.
In 2018, David Drysdale was the only top 5 finisher who was within 3 of the lead after 18 holes. Catch up is possible.
*As ever, follow our daily in-play updates and tips on our Alfred Dunhill Championship in-play page*
Alfred Dunhill Championship - Six To Watch
Please Note - The Six To Watch will move to a different format from next week. We'll have more information on future changes on Saturday.
The Six To Watch for the Alfred Dunhill Championship are:
Robert MacIntyre - 14/1 @ Skybet (8 places)
Scottish Bob delivered for us 3 weeks ago at the Cyprus Showdown and we think he may well do it again. Brandon Stone has seemingly been tipped up everywhere this week, but on a comparison between the two, Robert rates much better value. Yes, Brandon has home advantage, struck it nicely last week, and is a previous winner here, but Robert is over 100 places higher than him in the world rankings and for good reason - he is a more consistent golfer with only one missed cut this year.
Finishes of 26th and 15th here in the two renewals since the course overhaul are a nice bonus and the Scot appears to have the necessary motivation to continue his blistering form. "I love the course. I've got a lot to play for just now so this week is a huge opportunity". A look back at Robert's big results shows many were after a week off, so that shouldn't out us off. He is the most talented player in the field and although priced accordingly he is the pick of the favourites.
Pablo Larrazabal - 45/1 @ Boylesports (8 places)
This one doesn't really need much explanation. Pablo loves Leopard Creek. 9th in 2018 after a missed cut and 1st last year after two mediocre starts, he arrives in more consistent form with finishes of 27-MC-24. The course clearly suits his game and he feels relaxed here. "Everything that I love in life is here. The best nature and the best golf courses combined makes this a dream place." Pablo is a horses-for-course type, shown by his record of two wins and a 3rd at Golfclub München Eichenried, which hosts the BMW International Open. 45/1 for 8 places on offer seems generous.
Will Besseling - 50/1 @ William Hill (8 places)
The Dutchman missed his first cut in seven starts last week despite a second round 69. It shouldn't phase him too much as he was playing consistent golf in the lead up with a run of 17-16-30. He will be relishing a return to Leopard Creek after his career best performance in 2019 where he finished 3rd. Strong iron play is the name of the game here and Will ranks 3rd for GIR this season and 15th tee to green. A final bonus is his performance at Valderrama where he managed a tough test to finish 3rd.
Jorge Campillo - 50/1 @ Bet365 (5 places)
Jorge fits a similar profile to last years winner Larrazabal and has had a fantastic summer with a 3rd in Cyprus, 7th in Portugal and 8th in Wales. He is a two time European Tour winner in Morroco and Qatar. In the latter he beat David Drysdale, who has a great record at Leopard Creek, in a play-off. 2018 champion David Lipsky also enjoyed a 5th place finish in Morroco so there are plenty of course correlations. The Spaniard has the solid all round game for this test, ranking in the top 55 for the season in putting, around the greens and tee to green.
Masahiro Kawamura - 80/1 @ 888 Sport (6 places)
A missed cut last time has driven his price out and we're willing to chance that it was a bad week at the office given he has missed his two previous cuts at Randpark before then. Masahiro has been knocking on the door with finishes of 2nd in Cyprus (6th SG: Approach) , 5th in Portugal and 8th in Spain. Indeed, it it is that finish at Valderrama that we like the best, another tough test in firm conditions where keeping away from trouble is key. As an added bonus, he finished 18th here following a missed cut in 2018 so has proved he can get back on track at this course.
Lars Van Meijel - 150/1 @ Skybet (8 places)
It is perfectly possible last week's 7th place could be a one off, but there is enough evidence to justify a small play on him at a big price. He improved every day with rounds of 70-69-67-66 and ranked 4th for SG: Tee to green, SG: Approach and GIR which shows how nicely he's hitting it. Finished 24th here last year on his first look at Leopards Creek. Won twice in 2019, once on the Challenge Tour and once on the Alps Tour, so he should have no fear if in contention. On offer at 175/1 at Bet 365 but probably wiser to take the 8 places at Skybet despite the price drop.
The Six To Watch for the Alfred Dunhill Championship are:
Robert MacIntyre - 14/1 @ Skybet (8 places)
Scottish Bob delivered for us 3 weeks ago at the Cyprus Showdown and we think he may well do it again. Brandon Stone has seemingly been tipped up everywhere this week, but on a comparison between the two, Robert rates much better value. Yes, Brandon has home advantage, struck it nicely last week, and is a previous winner here, but Robert is over 100 places higher than him in the world rankings and for good reason - he is a more consistent golfer with only one missed cut this year.
Finishes of 26th and 15th here in the two renewals since the course overhaul are a nice bonus and the Scot appears to have the necessary motivation to continue his blistering form. "I love the course. I've got a lot to play for just now so this week is a huge opportunity". A look back at Robert's big results shows many were after a week off, so that shouldn't out us off. He is the most talented player in the field and although priced accordingly he is the pick of the favourites.
Pablo Larrazabal - 45/1 @ Boylesports (8 places)
This one doesn't really need much explanation. Pablo loves Leopard Creek. 9th in 2018 after a missed cut and 1st last year after two mediocre starts, he arrives in more consistent form with finishes of 27-MC-24. The course clearly suits his game and he feels relaxed here. "Everything that I love in life is here. The best nature and the best golf courses combined makes this a dream place." Pablo is a horses-for-course type, shown by his record of two wins and a 3rd at Golfclub München Eichenried, which hosts the BMW International Open. 45/1 for 8 places on offer seems generous.
Will Besseling - 50/1 @ William Hill (8 places)
The Dutchman missed his first cut in seven starts last week despite a second round 69. It shouldn't phase him too much as he was playing consistent golf in the lead up with a run of 17-16-30. He will be relishing a return to Leopard Creek after his career best performance in 2019 where he finished 3rd. Strong iron play is the name of the game here and Will ranks 3rd for GIR this season and 15th tee to green. A final bonus is his performance at Valderrama where he managed a tough test to finish 3rd.
Jorge Campillo - 50/1 @ Bet365 (5 places)
Jorge fits a similar profile to last years winner Larrazabal and has had a fantastic summer with a 3rd in Cyprus, 7th in Portugal and 8th in Wales. He is a two time European Tour winner in Morroco and Qatar. In the latter he beat David Drysdale, who has a great record at Leopard Creek, in a play-off. 2018 champion David Lipsky also enjoyed a 5th place finish in Morroco so there are plenty of course correlations. The Spaniard has the solid all round game for this test, ranking in the top 55 for the season in putting, around the greens and tee to green.
Masahiro Kawamura - 80/1 @ 888 Sport (6 places)
A missed cut last time has driven his price out and we're willing to chance that it was a bad week at the office given he has missed his two previous cuts at Randpark before then. Masahiro has been knocking on the door with finishes of 2nd in Cyprus (6th SG: Approach) , 5th in Portugal and 8th in Spain. Indeed, it it is that finish at Valderrama that we like the best, another tough test in firm conditions where keeping away from trouble is key. As an added bonus, he finished 18th here following a missed cut in 2018 so has proved he can get back on track at this course.
Lars Van Meijel - 150/1 @ Skybet (8 places)
It is perfectly possible last week's 7th place could be a one off, but there is enough evidence to justify a small play on him at a big price. He improved every day with rounds of 70-69-67-66 and ranked 4th for SG: Tee to green, SG: Approach and GIR which shows how nicely he's hitting it. Finished 24th here last year on his first look at Leopards Creek. Won twice in 2019, once on the Challenge Tour and once on the Alps Tour, so he should have no fear if in contention. On offer at 175/1 at Bet 365 but probably wiser to take the 8 places at Skybet despite the price drop.
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